Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Houston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ETFertitta Center · at Houston

#204OAKOakland45final

Final

#2HOUHouston AP #178▲ winner

Closing lineHOU -30.5✓ HOU covered by 2.5

Closing total138.5Under by 15.5

Season records: Oakland and Houston
OAK	This season	HOU
0-2	Record	2-0
1-1	ATS	0-2
2-0	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OAK 59–86 HOU · ✓ HOU (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OAK	17	28	45
HOU	39	39	78

1st half: OAK 17, HOU 39 (HOU by 22). The model had HOU by 16.1 and a total of 67.6 (actual 56).

Team stats

OAK		HOU
16-51 31%	Field goals	32-71 45%
3-13 23%	3-pointers	9-31 29%
10-15 67%	Free throws	5-8 63%
32 10 off	Rebounds	46 18 off
6	Assists	20
3	Steals	9
2	Blocks	6
13	Turnovers	6
12	Fouls	17
20	Points in paint	40
2	Fast-break points	17

Players

OAK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaac Garrett F	36	20	7	1	8-16	0-2
Tuburu Naivalurua F	33	6	5	1	3-10	0-1
Ziare Wells G	31	4	4	1	2-7	0-0
Nassim Mashhour G	29	9	0	0	3-6	3-4
Brody Robinson G	26	5	3	3	0-6	0-3
Bench
Brett White II G	17	1	2	0	0-3	0-3
Warren Marshall IV G	12	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Khoi Thurmon G	10	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Nate Deer F	6	0	2	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Hamoudy Mashhour, Donny Yeager, William Kassi, MJ Yeager, Michael Houge

HOU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kingston Flemings G	27	19	5	9	8-12	1-2
Emanuel Sharp G	26	19	4	4	7-13	5-9
Milos Uzan G	26	3	3	3	1-6	1-5
Chris Cenac Jr. F	19	11	4	0	5-11	0-1
Joseph Tugler F	15	4	4	1	2-2	0-0
Bench
Mercy Miller G	19	7	4	0	3-8	1-4
Isiah Harwell G	17	9	2	1	3-8	1-4
Ramon Walker Jr. G	15	0	6	2	0-1	0-1
Kalifa Sakho F	15	2	5	0	1-1	0-0
Chase McCarty F	12	0	2	0	0-4	0-3
Kordel Jefferson G	5	4	1	0	2-5	0-2
Cedric Lath C	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jacob McFarland, Bryce Jackson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HOU -30.5	HOU -26.9	OAK +3.6	L HOU covered
Total	138.5	144.3	Over 5.8	L Under
Projected score	—	OAK 58.7 · HOU 85.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOU -16.1	HOU -22.0
1H total	67.6	56
1H projected score	OAK 25.7 · HOU 41.9	OAK 17 · HOU 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OAK LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1
HOU LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: OAK away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OAK OO	2-0	100%	0-2
HOU UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OAKlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%
HOUlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oakland

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +24 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MICH	L 78-121	+24.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 199
Nov 7	@PUR	L 77-87	+31.5	W +21.5	158.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

−18.5

PUR

L 77-87

+21.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

+42.5

PUR

L 77-87

+5.5

over 2under 0avg +24 ptslonger = bigger margin

Houston

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −14 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −11 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLEH	W 75-57	-36.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsTOW	W 65-48	-26.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 113

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−18.5

TOW

W 65-48

−9.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LEH

W 75-57

−4.5

TOW

W 65-48

−17.5

over 0under 2avg −11 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oakland @ Houston

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Oakland

Houston

Oakland

Houston