Wagner Seahawks at Manhattan Jaspers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 5:00 PM ETDraddy Gymnasium · at Manhattan

#354WAGWagner103▲ winner

Final

#330MANManhattan101final

Closing lineMAN -2.5✓ WAG covered by 4.5

Closing total144.5Over by 59.5

Season records: Wagner and Manhattan
WAG	This season	MAN
0-5	Record	2-3
4-1	ATS	1-4
3-2	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WAG 74–76 MAN · ✗ MAN (57%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
WAG	43	46	14	103
MAN	56	33	12	101

1st half: WAG 43, MAN 56 (MAN by 13). The model had MAN by 1.1 and a total of 70.1 (actual 99).

Team stats

WAG		MAN
37-64 58%	Field goals	31-69 45%
9-16 56%	3-pointers	12-27 44%
20-27 74%	Free throws	27-35 77%
42 15 off	Rebounds	31 15 off
17	Assists	17
5	Steals	11
8	Blocks	6
14	Turnovers	9
22	Fouls	20
54	Points in paint	30
12	Fast-break points	17

Players

WAG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaden Baker G	43	13	4	2	5-12	2-5
Nick Jones G	42	35	6	6	11-17	3-4
Eddie Placer G	30	11	4	1	4-6	2-3
Bryan Akanmu F	22	10	7	2	5-9	0-0
John Awoke G	19	2	2	2	1-5	0-2
Bench
Zavier Fitch F	35	10	10	2	3-5	2-2
Sam Smith F	15	14	6	0	6-7	0-0
Bin Basil F	9	1	1	1	0-1	0-0
Elijah Brown G	6	4	0	1	1-1	0-0
Michael Cooper G	4	3	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Huascar Cuevas, Travis Gray, Makhai Anderson

MAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Devin Dinkins G	45	25	4	5	5-17	3-7
Jaden Winston G	35	21	2	4	8-11	2-4
Fraser Roxburgh F	32	17	3	4	7-10	3-4
Marko Ljubicic F	23	8	2	1	3-7	2-4
Erik Oliver-Bush G	14	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
Bench
Terrance Jones G	37	16	5	2	4-16	1-7
Anthony Isaac Jr. F	28	11	8	0	3-6	0-0
Quron Elliott G	11	0	1	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Nick Lukmann, Aryan Arora, Michael Lawlor, Asier Miguel, Omari Moore, Jameson Borodawka, Jaeden Robley, Jackson Delaney, Brett Rumpel, Louis Fairtlough, Will Sydnor

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MAN -2.5	MAN -2.0	WAG +0.5	W WAG covered
Total	144.5	149.7	Over 5.2	W Over
Projected score	—	WAG 73.8 · MAN 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MAN -1.1	MAN -13.0
1H total	70.1	99
1H projected score	WAG 34.5 · MAN 35.6	WAG 43 · MAN 56

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAG LWWWW	4-1	80%	4-1	4-1
MAN LWLLL	1-4	20%	—	0-1

Venue/role: WAG away, as underdog; MAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAG OUUOO	3-2	60%	0-5
MAN OUUUO	2-3	40%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAGlast 5	0-5 0%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%
MANlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WAG 1–1 MANSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · WAG 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 18, 2024-25	MAN 80 @ WAG 66	WAG -2.5	MAN W
Dec 30, 2023-24	WAG 68 @ MAN 56	MAN -2.5	WAG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wagner

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +7.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +9.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VCU	L 74-103	+25.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 177
Nov 7	@HALL	L 61-68	+21.5	W +14.5	134.5	U 129
Nov 11	@FOR	L 61-63	+12.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 124
Nov 16	@UMBC	L 70-71	+6.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 22	@GTWN	L 75-92	+25.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VCU

L 74-103

−3.5

HALL

L 61-68

+14.5

FOR

L 61-63

+10.5

UMBC

L 70-71

+5.5

GTWN

L 75-92

+8.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VCU

L 74-103

+43.5

HALL

L 61-68

−5.5

FOR

L 61-63

−15.5

UMBC

L 70-71

+0.5

GTWN

L 75-92

+26.5

over 3under 2avg +9.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Manhattan

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −8.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +7.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@USC	L 83-114	+28.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 12	vsUTU	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	@HAW	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsMVSU	W 80-73	-20.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 21	@TA&M	L 68-109	+23.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 83-114

−2.5

UTU

W 79-75

+6.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−13.5

TA&M

L 68-109

−17.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 83-114

+41.5

UTU

W 79-75

−4.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−1.5

TA&M

L 68-109

+14.5

over 2under 3avg +7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wagner @ Manhattan

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wagner

Manhattan

Wagner

Manhattan