Murray State Racers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 7:30 PM ETJohn Gray Gymnasium · Neutral site

#132MURMurray St87final

Final

#154MTSUMTSU90▲ winner

Closing lineMUR -6.5✓ MTSU covered by 9.5

Closing total161.5Over by 15.5

Season records: Murray St and MTSU
MUR	This season	MTSU
4-1	Record	1-1
4-1	ATS	2-0
5-0	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MUR 82–79 MTSU · ✗ MUR (60%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MUR	40	47	87
MTSU	43	47	90

1st half: MUR 40, MTSU 43 (MTSU by 3). The model had MUR by 2.0 and a total of 75.0 (actual 83).

Team stats

MUR		MTSU
30-62 48%	Field goals	37-74 50%
7-22 32%	3-pointers	6-16 38%
20-29 69%	Free throws	10-18 56%
34 8 off	Rebounds	46 17 off
12	Assists	17
4	Steals	3
5	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	10
17	Fouls	23
46	Points in paint	60
11	Fast-break points	12

Players

MUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javon Jackson G	27	12	3	1	4-13	1-4
Fredrick King C	27	18	6	1	6-8	0-1
JJ Traynor F	24	8	3	2	4-6	0-0
Mason Miller F	21	2	2	1	1-3	0-1
Layne Taylor G	21	3	1	2	1-2	1-1
Bench
Brayden Shorter G	19	12	3	0	4-7	4-7
KJ Tenner G	19	9	2	4	3-7	0-0
Roman Domon G	17	11	6	0	2-7	1-6
Mathis Courbon G	13	12	3	1	5-7	0-1
Dylan Anderson F	12	0	3	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Brock Vice, Tristian Ford, Lachlan Crate, Dillon Butler, Ben Shtolzberg

MTSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Torey Alston F	36	26	16	1	12-21	0-2
Sean Smith G	28	10	2	4	4-11	0-1
Tre Green G	21	2	3	3	0-3	0-2
Kamari Lands G	21	8	2	1	4-8	0-3
Chris Loofe F	15	10	4	1	5-9	0-0
Bench
Alec Oglesby G	27	17	5	0	5-8	4-5
Jahvin Carter G	21	7	5	4	3-6	1-1
Luka Jovanovic C	19	5	4	2	2-4	0-0
James Dent Jr. G	6	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Jarred Hall F	6	5	0	0	2-4	1-2

Did not play: Marcus Whitlock Jr., Charvez Ambrose, Jax Howard, Brandon Oloumou, Savon Wykle

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MUR -6.5	MUR -3.0	MTSU +3.5	W MTSU covered
Total	161.5	160.2	Under 1.3	L Over
Projected score	—	MUR 81.6 · MTSU 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MUR -2.0	MTSU -3.0
1H total	75.0	83
1H projected score	MUR 38.5 · MTSU 36.5	MUR 40 · MTSU 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MUR WWLWW	4-1	80%	1-0	4-0
MTSU WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0

Venue/role: MUR neutral site, as favorite; MTSU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MUR OOOOO	5-0	100%	4-1
MTSU OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MURlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	5-0 100%
MTSUlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MUR 3–1 MTSUMUR leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · MUR has won the last 2 meetings · MUR 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2024-25	MUR 88 @ MTSU 67	MTSU -2.5	MUR W
Dec 30, 2023-24	MTSU 54 @ MUR 75	MUR -4.5	MUR W
Dec 21, 2022-23	MUR 67 @ MTSU 83	MTSU -6.5	MTSU W
Dec 4, 2021-22	MTSU 87 @ MUR 93	MUR -12	MTSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Murray St

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +4.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-0

100% overs · avg +13.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-0100%

O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsOMA	W 85-77	-5.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 7	vsMVSU	W 108-60	-38.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 11	@SMU	L 91-102	+10.5	L −0.5	164.5	O 193
Nov 15	vsNICH	W 99-79	-14.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 18	vsLR	W 89-68	-13.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+2.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+9.5

SMU

L 91-102

−0.5

NICH

W 99-79

+5.5

W 89-68

+7.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OMA

W 85-77

+8.5

MVSU

W 108-60

+8.5

SMU

L 91-102

+28.5

NICH

W 99-79

+20.5

W 89-68

+3.5

over 5under 0avg +13.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

MTSU

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 12	@EVAN	W 77-72	+2.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 19	@MICH	L 61-86	+27.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+7.5

MICH

L 61-86

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 77-72

+8.5

MICH

L 61-86

−12.5

over 1under 1avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Murray St vs MTSU

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Murray St

MTSU

Murray St

MTSU