Eastern Illinois Panthers at Kentucky Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ETRupp Arena · at Kentucky

Final

#19UKKentucky AP #999▲ winner

Closing lineUK -35.5✓ UK covered by 10.5

Closing total147.5Over by 4.5

Season records: E Illinois and Kentucky
EIU	This season	UK
1-2	Record	2-1
3-0	ATS	1-2
0-3	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EIU 58–92 UK · ✓ UK (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EIU	19	34	53
UK	47	52	99

1st half: EIU 19, UK 47 (UK by 28). The model had UK by 20.8 and a total of 70.3 (actual 66).

Team stats

EIU		UK
17-52 33%	Field goals	39-64 61%
6-18 33%	3-pointers	9-25 36%
13-19 68%	Free throws	12-16 75%
17 5 off	Rebounds	49 16 off
11	Assists	21
8	Steals	8
4	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	13
12	Fouls	16
16	Points in paint	54
6	Fast-break points	24

Players

EIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kooper Jacobi F	35	6	4	2	2-13	1-4
Meechie White G	33	6	3	3	2-6	0-2
Terry McMorris F	32	18	4	2	5-10	0-0
Malik Olafioye G	22	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Prince Johnson F	17	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Markus Blackwell G	25	2	1	2	1-7	0-1
Andrew Austin F	19	13	0	2	4-8	3-6
JT Elder G	17	8	0	0	3-6	2-4

Did not play: Kyle Layton, Zion Fruster, Nazareth Fisher, Andre Washington, Preston Turner, Shane Sims

UK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Denzel Aberdeen G	23	13	3	1	6-9	1-3
Mo Dioubate F	22	20	11	1	8-9	0-1
Collin Chandler G	20	4	2	4	1-2	1-2
Brandon Garrison F	19	6	5	1	3-3	0-0
Otega Oweh G	18	12	2	3	4-7	0-1
Bench
Trent Noah F	22	8	3	0	3-6	2-5
Kam Williams G	21	6	2	2	2-4	2-4
Malachi Moreno C	20	11	6	2	4-7	0-0
Jasper Johnson G	19	8	5	7	3-7	2-4
Andrija Jelavic F	15	11	7	0	5-9	1-4
Walker Horn G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Zach Tow, Reece Potter, Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne, Jaland Lowe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UK -35.5	UK -34.6	EIU +0.9	L UK covered
Total	147.5	150.1	Over 2.6	W Over
Projected score	—	EIU 57.8 · UK 92.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UK -20.8	UK -28.0
1H total	70.3	66
1H projected score	EIU 24.8 · UK 45.6	EIU 19 · UK 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EIU WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	3-0
UK LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: EIU away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EIU UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
UK UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EIUlast 3	1-2 33%	3-0 100%	0-3 0%
UKlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Illinois

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −12.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@VAL	L 63-66	+5.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 129
Nov 7	vsNICH	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 11	@ND	L 58-78	+23.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

+2.5

NICH

W 65-57

+10.5

L 58-78

+3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAL

L 63-66

−15.5

NICH

W 65-57

−13.5

L 58-78

−7.5

over 0under 3avg −12.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kentucky

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

over 2under 1avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

E Illinois @ Kentucky

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

E Illinois

Kentucky

E Illinois

Kentucky