Kohl Center · at Wisconsin
Closing line
WIS -26.5✓ WIS covered by 4.5
WIS -26.5✓ WIS covered by 4.5Closing total156.5Under by 15.5
 BALL | This season | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 2-0 |
| 1-0 | ATS | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | O/U | 2-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BALL 64–90 WIS · ✓ WIS (99%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 26 | 29 | 55 |
| WIS | 39 | 47 | 86 |
1st half: BALL 26, WIS 39 (WIS by 13). The model had WIS by 15.6 and a total of 72.3 (actual 65).
Team stats
| BALL | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 18-53 34% | Field goals | 32-64 50% |
| 7-23 30% | 3-pointers | 14-38 37% |
| 12-21 57% | Free throws | 8-8 100% |
| 25 8 off | Rebounds | 45 15 off |
| 9 | Assists | 20 |
| 9 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 8 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| BALL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Jones F | 30 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4-5 | 3-3 |
| Armoni Zeigler G | 27 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Devon Barnes G | 25 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 4-11 | 2-5 |
| Davion Hill G | 21 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Kayden Fish F | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Elmore James IV G | 30 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 6-11 | 1-4 |
| Cam Denson F | 22 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Juwan Maxey G | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0-8 | 0-4 |
| Preston Copeland F | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jai Anthoni Bearden, Easton Foster, Alex Farley, Kody Clancy, Zane Doughty, Joey Hart
| WIS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Blackwell G | 26 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Austin Rapp F | 25 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 4-10 | 2-7 |
| Nolan Winter F | 20 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7-11 | 2-3 |
| Andrew Rohde G | 20 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Nick Boyd G | 19 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 5-12 | 2-7 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jack Janicki G | 21 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Braeden Carrington G | 18 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-4 |
| Aleksas Bieliauskas F | 17 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Hayden Jones G | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Will Garlock F | 12 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Riccardo Greppi F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jack Robison G | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Isaac Gard G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zach Kinziger, Elijah Gray
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketWIS -26.5
ModelWIS -25.9
Model edgeBALL +0.6
L WIS covered
Total
Market156.5
Model154.3
Model edgeUnder 2.2
W Under
Projected score
BALL 64.2 · WIS 90.1
BALL 55 · WIS 86
Win probability
WIS 99%
1st half
Spread
WIS -15.6
WIS -13.0
Total
72.3
65 points
Projected score
BALL 28.4 · WIS 43.9
BALL 26 · WIS 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWIS -25.5
1 → WIS
CloseWIS -26.5
1 pt toward WIS
Total
Open153.5
▲ 3
Close156.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
BALL +4000 · WIS -100000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WIS -25.5 · closed WIS -26.5 · moved 1 toward WISmodel WIS -26
model WIS -26
Opened 153.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 3 upmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BALLlast 1 | 1-0 100% | 1-0 100% | 0-1 0% |
| WISlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% | 2-0 100% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ball State
1 game played
Straight up
1-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-0
100% covers · avg +6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-1
0% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs UL | W 75-64 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
+6.5
covered 1didn’t cover 0avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUL
ULW 75-64
−2.5
over 0under 1avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Wisconsin
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-0
100% overs · avg +10 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CAM
CAMW 96-64
+11.5
7
vs
NIU
NIUW 97-72
−3.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAM
CAMW 96-64
+8.5
7
vsNIU
NIUW 97-72
+11.5
over 2under 0avg +10 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ball State
1-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Louisiana75–64
A week or more of rest.
Wisconsin
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs N Illinois97–72
- Wvs Campbell96–64
4 days since their last game.