East Carolina Pirates at UNC Wilmington Seahawks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETTrask Coliseum · at UNC Wilmington

Final

Closing lineUNCW -6.5✓ UNCW covered by 18.5

Closing total145.5Under by 0.5

Season records: East Carolina and UNC Wilmington
ECU	This season	UNCW
1-1	Record	1-1
0-2	ATS	0-2
2-0	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ECU 73–78 UNCW · ✓ UNCW (68%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ECU	30	30	60
UNCW	42	43	85

1st half: ECU 30, UNCW 42 (UNCW by 12). The model had UNCW by 3.0 and a total of 70.8 (actual 72).

Team stats

ECU		UNCW
21-63 33%	Field goals	25-50 50%
7-25 28%	3-pointers	14-28 50%
11-14 79%	Free throws	21-28 75%
32 12 off	Rebounds	42 9 off
8	Assists	19
6	Steals	1
1	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	12
22	Fouls	20
20	Points in paint	16
8	Fast-break points	16

Players

ECU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Riley G	34	19	3	1	7-19	1-3
Corey Caulker G	31	9	2	2	3-11	1-5
Tybo Bailey G	28	10	4	0	4-12	2-7
Giovanni Emejuru C	20	7	5	2	2-4	0-0
Eli DeLaurier C	15	0	5	0	0-3	0-2
Bench
Isaiah Mbeng G	30	6	0	3	2-7	2-5
Reid Cason F	20	2	6	0	1-4	0-1
Vito Perkovic F	12	7	2	0	2-3	1-2
Patrick D'Arcy G	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ladontae Felton G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jake Baker, Daithi Quinn, Luke Davis, Trevion LaBeaux, Jayshayne Woodard, Grant Smith

UNCW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nolan Hodge G	30	6	5	2	2-5	2-5
Greedy Williams G	29	9	1	10	2-4	1-1
Noah Ross G	27	16	5	0	6-10	3-6
Christian May G	25	22	6	0	8-12	6-10
Patrick Wessler C	20	12	8	0	3-7	0-0
Bench
Gavin Walsh F	27	13	3	0	3-8	2-5
Madison Durr G	23	7	5	7	1-4	0-1
Makoi Mabor Makoi F	13	0	5	0	0-0	0-0
Grady Whitt G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Makel Smith G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
JoJo Fullwood G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Adam Tokpah, Matija Prodanovic, CJ Luster II, Jahnathan Lamothe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCW -6.5	UNCW -5.3	ECU +1.2	L UNCW covered
Total	145.5	151.2	Over 5.7	L Under
Projected score	—	ECU 73 · UNCW 78.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCW -3.0	UNCW -12.0
1H total	70.8	72
1H projected score	ECU 33.9 · UNCW 37	ECU 30 · UNCW 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
UNCW LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; UNCW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU OO	2-0	100%	1-1
UNCW OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECUlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	2-0 100%
UNCWlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ECU 1–2 UNCWUNCW leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · ECU 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2024-25	UNCW 67 @ ECU 53	ECU -6.5	UNCW W
Nov 30, 2023-24	UNCW 66 @ ECU 74	ECU +2.5	ECU W
Dec 6, 2022-23	ECU 61 @ UNCW 74	UNCW -4.5	UNCW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

East Carolina

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +22.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsGASO	W 92-89	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	@RICH	L 72-87	+5.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

−2.5

RICH

L 72-87

−9.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

+29.5

RICH

L 72-87

+15.5

over 2under 0avg +22.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Wilmington

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@KENT	L 77-86	+3.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsUPST	W 73-60	-14.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

−5.5

UPST

W 73-60

−1.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

L 77-86

+6.5

UPST

W 73-60

−22.5

over 1under 1avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

East Carolina @ UNC Wilmington

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

East Carolina

UNC Wilmington

East Carolina

UNC Wilmington