Maine Black Bears at Merrimack Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:30 PM ETHammel Court · at Merrimack

#323MEMaine65final

Final

#225MRMKMerrimack72▲ winner

Closing lineMRMK -6.5✓ MRMK covered by 0.5

Closing total130.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Maine and Merrimack
ME	This season	MRMK
0-4	Record	1-3
2-2	ATS	1-3
1-3	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ME 64–69 MRMK · ✓ MRMK (67%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ME	27	38	65
MRMK	34	38	72

1st half: ME 27, MRMK 34 (MRMK by 7). The model had MRMK by 3.0 and a total of 62.7 (actual 61).

Team stats

ME		MRMK
20-43 47%	Field goals	23-49 47%
4-15 27%	3-pointers	6-22 27%
21-30 70%	Free throws	20-31 65%
35 14 off	Rebounds	26 10 off
12	Assists	13
6	Steals	9
2	Blocks	2
17	Turnovers	10
24	Fouls	19
28	Points in paint	32
2	Fast-break points	10

Players

ME	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Biel F	36	18	7	2	8-12	0-2
Ryan Mabrey G	29	8	2	1	3-7	2-6
Mekhi Gray G	28	5	4	5	1-2	0-0
Keelan Steele F	23	13	7	1	2-7	0-1
Caleb Crawford G	20	4	1	0	2-5	0-2
Bench
Ace Flagg F	21	4	4	2	0-2	0-0
Logan Carey G	17	8	6	0	2-5	1-2
Bashir N'Galang G	14	2	0	1	1-1	0-0
Isaac Bonilla G	12	3	1	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Amare Allen, Darius Lopes, Emmitt Byther, Joshua Ojuri, Yanis Bamba, Killian Gribben, John Shea

MRMK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kevair Kennedy G	38	23	6	5	6-9	0-0
Ernest Shelton G	38	14	3	1	4-11	2-7
Tye Dorset G	34	5	2	2	2-8	0-3
Todd Brogna F	32	11	7	3	3-6	3-6
Andrés Marrero G	25	11	1	1	4-9	1-6
Bench
KC Ugwuakazi F	11	4	1	1	2-2	0-0
Aliou Cisse F	10	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Dylan Veillette F	6	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Malik Edmead G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Brendan Johnson, Brandon Legris, Jaylen Stinson, Jacob Moore, Quinn Kwasniak, David Munro

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRMK -6.5	MRMK -5.2	ME +1.3	L MRMK covered
Total	130.5	133.7	Over 3.2	W Over
Projected score	—	ME 64.3 · MRMK 69.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRMK -3.0	MRMK -7.0
1H total	62.7	61
1H projected score	ME 29.9 · MRMK 32.8	ME 27 · MRMK 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ME WLWL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-2
MRMK LLLW	1-3	25%	—	—

Venue/role: ME away, as underdog; MRMK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ME UUOU	1-3	25%	0-4
MRMK UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MElast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
MRMKlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ME 1–2 MRMKMRMK leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · ME 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2023-24	MRMK 71 @ ME 65	ME -8.5	MRMK W
Dec 11, 2022-23	ME 50 @ MRMK 47	MRMK -1.5	ME W
Dec 21, 2021-22	MRMK 49 @ ME 47	ME +7.5	ME W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Maine

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 16	vsQUIN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−3.5

over 1under 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Merrimack

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

over 2under 2avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Maine @ Merrimack

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Maine

Merrimack

Maine

Merrimack