Quinnipiac Bobcats at Maine Black Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 2:00 PM ETSkip Chappelle Court in Memorial Gymnasium · at Maine

#241QUINQuinnipiac70▲ winner

Final

#323MEMaine64final

Closing lineQUIN -3.5✓ QUIN covered by 2.5

Closing total137.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Quinnipiac and Maine
QUIN	This season	ME
1-2	Record	0-3
1-2	ATS	2-1
2-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: QUIN 71–70 ME · ✓ QUIN (52%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
QUIN	28	42	70
ME	36	28	64

1st half: QUIN 28, ME 36 (ME by 8). The model had QUIN by 0.5 and a total of 65.9 (actual 64).

Team stats

QUIN		ME
23-63 37%	Field goals	22-56 39%
3-18 17%	3-pointers	6-21 29%
21-31 68%	Free throws	14-21 67%
47 18 off	Rebounds	32 9 off
11	Assists	16
7	Steals	9
6	Blocks	8
12	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	26
34	Points in paint	28
19	Fast-break points	17

Players

QUIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amarri Monroe F	40	17	13	4	6-15	0-3
Spence Wewe F	23	8	9	1	4-4	0-0
Grant Randall F	23	7	6	0	3-5	0-2
Asim Jones G	21	2	1	3	1-5	0-0
Jaden Zimmerman G	20	10	1	0	2-11	1-6
Bench
Keith McKnight F	28	11	5	0	2-9	0-1
Nate Guerengomba G	24	6	3	1	3-7	0-0
Tai Turnage G	15	6	4	1	1-4	1-3
Samson Reilly G	5	3	0	1	1-2	1-2
Ronell Giles Jr. G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Akintola Akinniyi, Jayden Reid, Braylan Ritvo, Christopher Skenderi, Sam Nosakhare

ME	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Biel F	34	17	2	0	6-10	3-4
Mekhi Gray G	27	8	3	1	1-5	0-2
Keelan Steele F	27	14	6	3	6-10	0-1
Caleb Crawford G	19	5	1	2	2-6	1-3
Logan Carey G	11	2	1	1	1-4	0-1
Bench
Ryan Mabrey G	26	11	5	3	4-8	2-5
Bashir N'Galang G	21	7	2	3	2-5	0-0
Ace Flagg F	19	0	6	2	0-5	0-3
Yanis Bamba F	8	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Isaac Bonilla G	8	0	1	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Amare Allen, Darius Lopes, Killian Gribben, Emmitt Byther, Joshua Ojuri, John Shea

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	QUIN -3.5	QUIN -0.6	ME +2.9	L QUIN covered
Total	137.5	140.6	Over 3.1	L Under
Projected score	—	QUIN 70.6 · ME 70

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	QUIN -0.5	ME -8.0
1H total	65.9	64
1H projected score	QUIN 33.2 · ME 32.7	QUIN 28 · ME 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
QUIN LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-0
ME WLW	2-1	67%	—	2-1

Venue/role: QUIN away, as favorite; ME home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
QUIN OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
ME UUO	1-2	33%	0-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
QUINlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
MElast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

QUIN 2–0 MEQUIN leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · QUIN has won the last 2 meetings · QUIN 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2024-25	ME 55 @ QUIN 58	QUIN -5.5	ME W
Dec 11, 2021-22	ME 47 @ QUIN 73	QUIN -13.5	QUIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Quinnipiac

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SJU	L 74-108	+26.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 182
Nov 6	vsCCSU	W 71-49	-9.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 120
Nov 11	vsYALE	L 60-97	+6.5	L −30.5	156.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJU

L 74-108

−7.5

CCSU

W 71-49

+12.5

YALE

L 60-97

−30.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJU

L 74-108

+25.5

CCSU

W 71-49

−30.5

YALE

L 60-97

+0.5

over 2under 1avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maine

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

over 1under 2avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Quinnipiac @ Maine

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Quinnipiac

Maine

Quinnipiac

Maine