University Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's
Closing line
SMC -11.5✓ UNI covered by 6.5
SMC -11.5✓ UNI covered by 6.5Closing total132.5Under by 11.5
 UNI | This season | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | Record | 9-2 |
| 6-4 | ATS | 6-5 |
| 2-8 | O/U | 7-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNI 60–70 SMC · ✓ SMC (82%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNI | 27 | 31 | 58 |
| SMC | 28 | 35 | 63 |
1st half: UNI 27, SMC 28 (SMC by 1). The model had SMC by 6.1 and a total of 60.8 (actual 55).
Team stats
| UNI | SMC | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-55 44% | Field goals | 17-53 32% |
| 7-20 35% | 3-pointers | 4-20 20% |
| 3-4 75% | Free throws | 25-27 93% |
| 25 3 off | Rebounds | 43 15 off |
| 18 | Assists | 10 |
| 7 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 23 | Fouls | 11 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| UNI | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Bond III G | 38 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4-10 | 2-5 |
| Trey Campbell G | 38 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8-16 | 2-7 |
| Ben Schwieger F | 35 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-10 | 1-3 |
| Tristan Smith F | 25 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 5-10 | 0-1 |
| Will Hornseth F | 15 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ismael Diouf F | 23 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| Kyle Pock F | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Geon Hutchins G | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Chase Courbat F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Marino Dubravcic, RJ Taylor, Redek Born, Max Weisbrod, Cade Courbat, Jalen Wilson, Levi Valdo, Hunter Jacobson
| SMC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dent G | 40 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Dillan Shaw G | 38 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Mikey Lewis G | 37 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 5-18 | 1-6 |
| Paulius Murauskas F | 34 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 6-18 | 1-7 |
| Harry Wessels C | 27 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Andrew McKeever C | 13 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Liam Campbell G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Rory Hawke G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Tony Duckett G | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kevin Gad, Cade Bennett, Oliver Faubert, Mantas Juzenas, Jazz Gardner, Trent MacLean
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSMC -11.5
ModelSMC -10.4
Model edgeUNI +1.1
W UNI covered
Total
Market132.5
Model129.6
Model edgeUnder 2.9
W Under
Projected score
UNI 59.6 · SMC 70
UNI 58 · SMC 63
Win probability
SMC 82%
1st half
Spread
SMC -6.1
SMC -1.0
Total
60.8
55 points
Projected score
UNI 27.3 · SMC 33.5
UNI 27 · SMC 28
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSMC -11.5
no move
CloseSMC -11.5
No change since the open
Total
Open128.5
▲ 4
Close132.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
UNI +550 · SMC -800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SMC -11.5 · unchangedmodel SMC -10.5
model SMC -10.5
Opened 128.5 · closed 132.5 · moved 4 upmodel 129.5
model 129.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNI | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 2-8 20% |
| SMC | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Northern Iowa
10 games played
Straight up
8-2
80% wins
Against the spread
6-4
60% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-8
20% overs · avg −12.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | vs CSUN | W 86-57 | -9.5 | W +19.5 | 153.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 9 | vs SDST | W 65-58 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 14 | vs FUR | W 70-54 | -9.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 18 | vs NIU | W 70-57 | -19.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 22 | @ UCI | W 70-69 | +2.5 | W +3.5 | 138.5 | O 139 |
| Nov 25 | vs LUC | W 72-51 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 134.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 26 | vs TLSA | L 60-63 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 137.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs WICH | L 69-74 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 13 | vs OAK | W 75-63 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | @ UIC | W 60-54 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 133.5 | U 114 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
vsCSUN
CSUNW 86-57
+19.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTW 65-58
−3.5
14
vsFUR
FURW 70-54
+6.5
18
vsNIU
NIUW 70-57
−6.5
22
@UCI
UCIW 70-69
+3.5
25
vsLUC
LUCW 72-51
+12.5
26
vsTLSA
TLSAL 60-63
−5.5
6
vsWICH
WICHL 69-74
−6.5
13
vsOAK
OAKW 75-63
+3.5
17
@UIC
UICW 60-54
+0.5
covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
vsCSUN
CSUNW 86-57
−10.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTW 65-58
−27.5
14
vsFUR
FURW 70-54
−17.5
18
vsNIU
NIUW 70-57
−19.5
22
@UCI
UCIW 70-69
+0.5
25
vsLUC
LUCW 72-51
−11.5
26
vsTLSA
TLSAL 60-63
−14.5
6
vsWICH
WICHL 69-74
+7.5
13
vsOAK
OAKW 75-63
−11.5
17
@UIC
UICW 60-54
−19.5
over 2under 8avg −12.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Saint Mary's
11 games played
Straight up
9-2
82% wins
Against the spread
6-5
55% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-4
64% overs · avg +3.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs STMN | W 84-58 | -13.5 | W +12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 7 | vs UTC | W 87-66 | -15.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 11 | vs OHIO | W 90-60 | -17.5 | W +12.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 14 | vs UNT | W 80-49 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 128.5 | O 129 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARST | W 85-72 | -20.5 | L −7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 26 | vsWICH | W 70-65 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 27 | vs VT | W 77-66 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 28 | vs VAN | L 71-96 | +4.5 | L −20.5 | 149.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 7 | @ DAV | W 70-61 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 137.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 14 | vs BOIS | L 67-68 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 19 | vs FAU | W 88-75 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 84-58
+12.5
7
vsUTC
UTCW 87-66
+5.5
11
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-60
+12.5
14
vsUNT
UNTW 80-49
+16.5
19
vsARST
ARSTW 85-72
−7.5
26
vsWICH
WICHW 70-65
−4.5
27
vsVT
VTW 77-66
+5.5
28
vsVAN
VANL 71-96
−20.5
7
@DAV
DAVW 70-61
+0.5
14
vsBOIS
BOISL 67-68
−3.5
19
vsFAU
FAUW 88-75
−0.5
covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 84-58
+0.5
7
vsUTC
UTCW 87-66
+7.5
11
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-60
+5.5
14
vsUNT
UNTW 80-49
+0.5
19
vsARST
ARSTW 85-72
+7.5
26
vsWICH
WICHW 70-65
−4.5
27
vsVT
VTW 77-66
−1.5
28
vsVAN
VANL 71-96
+17.5
7
@DAV
DAVW 70-61
−6.5
14
vsBOIS
BOISL 67-68
−4.5
19
vsFAU
FAUW 88-75
+17.5
over 7under 4avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Northern Iowa
8-2 overall · 1-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ UIC60–54
- Wvs Oakland75–63
- Lvs Wichita St69–74
- Lvs Tulsa60–63
- Wvs Loyola Chicago72–51
5 days since their last game.
Saint Mary's
9-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs FAU88–75
- Lvs Boise St67–68
- W@ Davidson70–61
- Lvs Vanderbilt71–96
- Wvs Virginia Tech77–66
3 days since their last game.