Lafayette Leopards at West Virginia Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETHope Coliseum · at West Virginia

#310LAFLafayette59final

Final

Closing lineWVU -24.5✓ LAF covered by 2.5

Closing total135.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Lafayette and West Virginia
LAF	This season	WVU
0-3	Record	4-0
1-2	ATS	2-2
3-0	O/U	0-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LAF 57–82 WVU · ✓ WVU (99%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LAF	25	34	59
WVU	36	45	81

1st half: LAF 25, WVU 36 (WVU by 11). The model had WVU by 14.8 and a total of 65.3 (actual 61).

Team stats

LAF		WVU
20-49 41%	Field goals	29-58 50%
10-22 45%	3-pointers	9-20 45%
9-12 75%	Free throws	14-21 67%
25 6 off	Rebounds	36 12 off
14	Assists	19
6	Steals	6
2	Blocks	3
19	Turnovers	10
17	Fouls	15
18	Points in paint	38
7	Fast-break points	11

Players

LAF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mark Butler G	36	7	1	5	3-7	0-0
Caleb Williams G	34	16	5	4	5-10	4-8
Andrew Phillips G	34	19	3	1	7-15	3-6
Christian Humphrey-Rembert F	30	6	8	1	2-4	2-4
Shareef Jackson F	24	6	4	1	2-7	0-0
Bench
Ryan Pettit G	26	3	0	2	1-5	1-4
Luke Bevilacqua F	14	2	2	0	0-1	0-0
Folabomi Fayemi G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Joshua Wyche, Luke Azzinaro, Ashton Wallace, KaiMani Murdock, Beckett Currie, TJ Berger, Misha Bednostin, Luka Savicevic, Chris Rubayo, Malik Rasul, Justin Vander Baan

WVU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Honor Huff G	34	24	1	0	8-11	8-9
Brenen Lorient F	30	9	5	4	3-7	0-2
Jasper Floyd G	25	2	3	6	1-5	0-1
Treysen Eaglestaff G	23	4	5	1	1-4	0-2
Harlan Obioha C	16	3	5	2	1-5	0-0
Bench
DJ Thomas F	28	25	3	1	11-17	0-2
Amir Jenkins G	21	9	3	5	3-6	0-1
Morris Ugusuk G	21	5	7	0	1-2	1-2
Jayden Forsythe G	2	0	2	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: MJ Feenane, Evans Barning Jr., Niyol Hauet, Abraham Oyeadier, Jackson Fields, Chance Moore

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WVU -24.5	WVU -24.8	WVU +0.3	L LAF covered
Total	135.5	139.4	Over 3.9	W Over
Projected score	—	LAF 57.3 · WVU 82.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WVU -14.8	WVU -11.0
1H total	65.3	61
1H projected score	LAF 25.2 · WVU 40.1	LAF 25 · WVU 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAF WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2
WVU LLWW	2-2	50%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: LAF away, as underdog; WVU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAF OOO	3-0	100%	0-3
WVU UUUU	0-4	0%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAFlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%
WVUlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lafayette

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +13.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

over 3under 0avg +13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

West Virginia

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsMSM	W 70-54	-19.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 6	vsCAM	W 73-65	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsLEH	W 69-47	-17.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 13	vsPITT	W 71-49	-5.5	W +16.5	134.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−3.5

CAM

W 73-65

−7.5

LEH

W 69-47

+4.5

PITT

W 71-49

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSM

W 70-54

−12.5

CAM

W 73-65

−0.5

LEH

W 69-47

−23.5

PITT

W 71-49

−14.5

over 0under 4avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lafayette @ West Virginia

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Lafayette

West Virginia

Lafayette

West Virginia