Sanford Pentagon · Neutral site
Closing line
ISU -5.5✓ ISU covered by 10.5
ISU -5.5✓ ISU covered by 10.5Closing total150.5Over by 25.5
 MSST | This season | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | ATS | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | O/U | 1-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSST 75–80 ISU · ✓ ISU (65%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 35 | 45 | 80 |
| ISU | 53 | 43 | 96 |
1st half: MSST 35, ISU 53 (ISU by 18). The model had ISU by 2.5 and a total of 72.6 (actual 88).
Team stats
| MSST | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-58 50% | Field goals | 36-70 51% |
| 11-27 41% | 3-pointers | 5-22 23% |
| 11-14 79% | Free throws | 19-25 76% |
| 37 15 off | Rebounds | 31 15 off |
| 14 | Assists | 21 |
| 4 | Steals | 12 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 26 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 56 |
| 13 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 36 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 8-17 | 4-10 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 25 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-8 | 2-5 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 20 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Achor Achor F | 19 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 18 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Sergej Macura F | 18 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| King Grace G | 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Brandon Walker F | 9 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Amier Ali F | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Jayden Epps, Tee Bartlett, Cameren Paul, Gai Chol
| ISU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamin Lipsey G | 36 | 25 | 1 | 6 | 9-17 | 2-5 |
| Blake Buchanan F | 31 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Joshua Jefferson F | 25 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 6-8 | 0-1 |
| Killyan Toure G | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Milan Momcilovic F | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nate Heise G | 27 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4-7 | 0-3 |
| Dominick Nelson G | 19 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Jamarion Batemon G | 14 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Dominykas Pleta F | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Eric Mulder F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Anthony Rise, Mason Williams, Cade Kelderman, Xzavion Mitchell
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketISU -5.5
ModelISU -4.5
Model edgeMSST +1.0
L ISU covered
Total
Market150.5
Model154.9
Model edgeOver 4.4
W Over
Projected score
MSST 75.2 · ISU 79.7
MSST 80 · ISU 96
Win probability
ISU 65%
1st half
Spread
ISU -2.5
ISU -18.0
Total
72.6
88 points
Projected score
MSST 35 · ISU 37.5
MSST 35 · ISU 53
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenISU -4.5
1 → ISU
CloseISU -5.5
1 pt toward ISU
Total
Open150.5
no move
Close150.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MSST +200 · ISU -240
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ISU -4.5 · closed ISU -5.5 · moved 1 toward ISUmodel ISU -4.5
model ISU -4.5
Opened 150.5 · unchangedmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSSTlast 1 | 1-0 100% | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% |
| ISUlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mississippi St
1 game played
Straight up
1-0
100% wins
Against the spread
0-1
0% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-1
0% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
covered 0didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
over 0under 1avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Iowa State
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-0
100% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
FDU
FDUW 88-50
+0.5
6
vs
GRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+6.5
covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
−9.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+19.5
over 1under 1avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St
1-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Alabama86–62
5 days since their last game.
Iowa State
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Grambling102–62
- Wvs FDU88–50
4 days since their last game.