Georgia State Panthers at Arizona State Sun Devils: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 9:00 PM ETDesert Financial Arena · at Arizona St

#208GASTGeorgia St62final

Final

#60ASUArizona St75▲ winner

Closing lineASU -18.5✓ GAST covered by 5.5

Closing total145.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Georgia St and Arizona St
GAST	This season	ASU
0-3	Record	2-1
1-2	ATS	2-1
0-3	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GAST 64–83 ASU · ✓ ASU (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GAST	39	23	62
ASU	34	41	75

1st half: GAST 39, ASU 34 (GAST by 5). The model had ASU by 11.2 and a total of 69.1 (actual 73).

Team stats

GAST		ASU
20-55 36%	Field goals	29-62 47%
9-25 36%	3-pointers	4-19 21%
13-16 81%	Free throws	13-18 72%
34 9 off	Rebounds	37 10 off
9	Assists	14
6	Steals	9
1	Blocks	4
18	Turnovers	10
18	Fouls	16
20	Points in paint	40
5	Fast-break points	27

Players

GAST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Malachi Brown G	36	15	5	4	5-15	2-7
Joah Chappelle F	33	3	7	1	1-4	0-1
Jakai Newton G	31	11	9	1	3-14	0-5
Micah Tucker G	30	11	1	1	3-7	2-4
Christian Beam C	21	3	2	1	1-3	0-0
Bench
Anthony Enoh F	21	7	6	1	3-5	1-1
Ayouba Berthe G	14	9	0	0	3-6	3-6
Isaiah Sherrard F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
James Cooper F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Chris Jones G	3	3	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Kwame Tanic, Trey Scott, Clash Peters, Manos Koveos, Jelani Hamilton

ASU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Maurice Odum G	31	24	5	9	10-19	2-5
Massamba Diop C	30	15	11	1	5-7	0-1
Andrija Grbovic F	28	7	2	0	3-8	1-4
Bryce Ford G	27	8	4	1	3-8	1-2
Santiago Trouet F	25	2	4	1	1-4	0-1
Bench
Anthony Johnson G	17	13	4	0	5-6	0-0
Noah Meeusen G	17	2	3	1	0-2	0-2
Allen Mukeba F	13	2	3	1	1-3	0-0
Marcus Adams Jr. F	6	0	0	0	0-3	0-3
Trevor Best G	6	2	1	0	1-2	0-1

Did not play: Vijay Wallace, Dame Salane, Jovan Icitovic, Quentin McCoy, Kash Polk, Adante' Holiman

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ASU -18.5	ASU -18.8	ASU +0.3	L GAST covered
Total	145.5	147.5	Over 2.0	L Under
Projected score	—	GAST 64.4 · ASU 83.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ASU -11.2	GAST -5.0
1H total	69.1	73
1H projected score	GAST 29 · ASU 40.2	GAST 39 · ASU 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1
ASU LWW	2-1	67%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; ASU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UUU	0-3	0%	0-3
ASU UUU	0-3	0%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASTlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%
ASUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia St

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −20.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

over 0under 3avg −20.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arizona St

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsSUU	W 81-64	-17.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 9	vsUTU	W 81-66	-12.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsGONZ	L 65-77	+13.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−0.5

UTU

W 81-66

+2.5

GONZ

L 65-77

+1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−6.5

UTU

W 81-66

−5.5

GONZ

L 65-77

−16.5

over 0under 3avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia St @ Arizona St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia St

Arizona St

Georgia St

Arizona St