Lenovo Center · at NC State
Closing line
NCSU -11.5✓ VCU covered by 5.5
NCSU -11.5✓ VCU covered by 5.5Closing total164.5Under by 0.5
 VCU | This season | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | Record | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | ATS | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | O/U | 3-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VCU 74–84 NCSU · ✓ NCSU (79%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 35 | 44 | 79 |
| NCSU | 39 | 46 | 85 |
1st half: VCU 35, NCSU 39 (NCSU by 4). The model had NCSU by 5.3 and a total of 74.0 (actual 74).
Team stats
| VCU | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-66 41% | Field goals | 25-54 46% |
| 13-42 31% | 3-pointers | 8-21 38% |
| 12-18 67% | Free throws | 27-33 82% |
| 31 12 off | Rebounds | 45 14 off |
| 17 | Assists | 11 |
| 11 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 21 | Fouls | 13 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 22 |
Players
| VCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Evans F | 34 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 6-12 | 3-7 |
| Lazar Djokovic F | 32 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-2 |
| Nyk Lewis G | 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
| Jadrian Tracey G | 29 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5-12 | 4-9 |
| Brandon Jennings G | 21 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tyrell Ward G | 26 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3-10 | 1-6 |
| Terrence Hill Jr. G | 15 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Christian Fermin F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Michael Belle F | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ahmad Nowell G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Keyshawn Mitchell, Jordan Tillery, Jordann Dumont, Obinnaya Okafor
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Holloman G | 34 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 6-12 | 3-6 |
| Darrion Williams F | 33 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 9-15 | 2-4 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 28 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Quadir Copeland G | 23 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 22 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Musa Sagnia C | 27 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Matt Able G | 17 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Alyn Breed G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jerry Deng F | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jayme Kontuniemi, Scottie Ebube, Jordan Snell, Colt Langdon, Terrance Arceneaux, Zymicah Wilkins
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNCSU -11.5
ModelNCSU -9.1
Model edgeVCU +2.4
W VCU covered
Total
Market164.5
Model157.9
Model edgeUnder 6.6
W Under
Projected score
VCU 74.4 · NCSU 83.5
VCU 79 · NCSU 85
Win probability
NCSU 79%
1st half
Spread
NCSU -5.3
NCSU -4.0
Total
74.0
74 points
Projected score
VCU 34.3 · NCSU 39.6
VCU 35 · NCSU 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -12.5
1 → VCU
CloseNCSU -11.5
1 pt toward VCU
Total
Open163.5
▲ 1
Close164.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
VCU +600 · NCSU -1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -12.5 · closed NCSU -11.5 · moved 1 toward VCUmodel NCSU -9
model NCSU -9
Opened 163.5 · closed 164.5 · moved 1 upmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCUlast 3 | 2-1 67% | 1-2 33% | 1-2 33% |
| NCSUlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 3-0 100% | 3-0 100% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
VCU
3 games played
Straight up
2-1
67% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
WAG
WAGW 103-74
+3.5
7
vs
USU
USUL 77-80
−0.5
12
vs
SPU
SPUW 78-61
−3.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWAG
WAGW 103-74
+43.5
7
vsUSU
USUL 77-80
−6.5
12
vsSPU
SPUW 78-61
−8.5
over 1under 2avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
NC State
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-0
100% covers · avg +12.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-0
100% overs · avg +18.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
NCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vs
UAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vs
UNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +12.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
over 3under 0avg +18.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
VCU
2-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Saint Peter's78–61
- Lvs Utah State77–80
- Wvs Wagner103–74
5 days since their last game.
NC State
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UNC Greensboro110–64
- Wvs UAB94–70
- Wvs NC Central114–66
5 days since their last game.