VMI Keydets at Richmond Spiders: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETRobins Center · at Richmond

#320VMIVMI54final

Final

#104RICHRichmond87▲ winner

Closing lineRICH -14.5✓ RICH covered by 18.5

Closing total152.5Under by 11.5

Season records: VMI and Richmond
VMI	This season	RICH
1-2	Record	2-0
1-2	ATS	1-1
1-2	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: VMI 69–85 RICH · ✓ RICH (93%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
VMI	26	28	54
RICH	49	38	87

1st half: VMI 26, RICH 49 (RICH by 23). The model had RICH by 9.8 and a total of 72.2 (actual 75).

Team stats

VMI		RICH
18-49 37%	Field goals	33-59 56%
8-31 26%	3-pointers	12-24 50%
10-20 50%	Free throws	9-14 64%
29 9 off	Rebounds	36 9 off
6	Assists	21
3	Steals	12
4	Blocks	3
16	Turnovers	10
15	Fouls	19
20	Points in paint	34
4	Fast-break points	13

Players

VMI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Johnson F	30	4	5	1	1-11	0-9
Cal Liston F	28	7	3	1	2-4	1-3
Tan Yildizoglu G	27	5	2	1	2-6	1-3
Linus Holmstrom G	23	9	1	0	3-7	3-7
AJ Clark G	21	3	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Mario Tatum Jr. G	27	9	1	1	3-8	2-5
Jaylen Pazon G	19	14	2	1	6-11	1-4
Kaden Stuckey F	18	3	6	1	0-1	0-0
Mason Hagedorn F	4	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Branford Edmonds III G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Robert Peters, Walker Andrews, Rickey Bradley Jr., Alexander Daushvili, Mason Lawson

RICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
AJ Lopez G	18	12	0	0	3-6	2-4
Mike Walz C	17	8	9	3	3-4	2-2
Will Johnston G	15	6	3	1	2-2	2-2
Collin Tanner G	15	6	0	2	3-9	0-2
Mikkel Tyne G	14	5	0	3	2-4	1-3
Bench
Aiden Argabright G	24	11	0	5	3-7	1-4
Apostolos Roumoglou F	18	4	7	1	2-2	0-0
David Thomas G	16	10	0	2	4-6	2-3
Jaden Daughtry F	14	10	1	1	5-6	0-1
Jaylen Robinson F	14	0	2	1	0-2	0-0
Will Harper III G	12	6	2	1	2-4	2-3
Jonathan Beagle F	12	7	6	0	3-5	0-0
Bryson McGlothin F	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Kirby Mooney G	3	2	1	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Donovan Richardson, Dylan Homenick

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	RICH -14.5	RICH -16.5	RICH +2.0	W RICH covered
Total	152.5	154.0	Over 1.5	L Under
Projected score	—	VMI 68.8 · RICH 85.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RICH -9.8	RICH -23.0
1H total	72.2	75
1H projected score	VMI 31.2 · RICH 41	VMI 26 · RICH 49

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VMI WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	0-2
RICH WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: VMI away, as underdog; RICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
VMI UOU	1-2	33%	1-2
RICH OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VMIlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
RICHlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

VMI 0–3 RICHRICH leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · RICH has won the last 3 meetings · VMI 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	VMI 71 @ RICH 78	RICH -11.5	VMI W
Nov 6, 2023-24	VMI 75 @ RICH 93	RICH -17.5	RICH W
Nov 7, 2022-23	VMI 48 @ RICH 69	RICH -22.5	VMI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

VMI

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

over 1under 2avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Richmond

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +13.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsECU	W 87-72	-5.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsW&M	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+9.5

W&M

W 90-86

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+15.5

W&M

W 90-86

+11.5

over 2under 0avg +13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

VMI @ Richmond

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

VMI

Richmond

VMI

Richmond