Dayton Flyers at Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:30 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Marquette

#91DAYDayton77▲ winner

Final

#42MARQMarquette71final

Closing lineMARQ -6.5✓ DAY covered by 12.5

Closing total151.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Dayton and Marquette
DAY	This season	MARQ
3-1	Record	3-2
1-3	ATS	2-3
1-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DAY 73–81 MARQ · ✗ MARQ (74%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
DAY	39	29	9	77
MARQ	34	34	3	71

1st half: DAY 39, MARQ 34 (DAY by 5). The model had MARQ by 4.3 and a total of 72.0 (actual 73).

Team stats

DAY		MARQ
26-49 53%	Field goals	25-65 38%
7-17 41%	3-pointers	9-31 29%
18-26 69%	Free throws	12-16 75%
33 5 off	Rebounds	34 13 off
15	Assists	13
11	Steals	21
5	Blocks	2
25	Turnovers	20
17	Fouls	20
34	Points in paint	32
11	Fast-break points	20

Players

DAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
De'Shayne Montgomery G	42	18	3	0	8-11	2-3
Jordan Derkack G	35	8	4	5	3-7	1-3
Amal L'Etang F	34	5	8	2	1-4	0-0
Javon Bennett G	33	19	1	4	6-13	1-6
Keonte Jones G	28	7	3	1	2-4	1-1
Bench
Jacob Conner F	22	6	4	1	2-3	2-2
Jaiun Simon F	11	5	4	1	1-1	0-0
Malcolm Thomas F	11	8	2	0	3-4	0-0
Bryce Heard G	9	1	1	1	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Adam Njie, Damon Friery, Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey, Jaron McKie

MARQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chase Ross G	43	15	4	3	5-14	1-7
Nigel James Jr. G	38	18	3	5	5-16	2-8
Zaide Lowery G	35	10	3	1	4-10	2-7
Ben Gold F	35	6	8	1	2-7	2-6
Caedin Hamilton F	17	6	6	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Royce Parham F	25	5	7	2	2-7	1-1
Adrien Stevens G	17	5	1	0	2-3	1-2
Tre Norman G	12	6	1	1	3-4	0-0
Damarius Owens SF	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ian Miletic, Joshua Clark, Michael Phillips II, Sheek Pearson, Braeden Brenn, Casey O'Malley, Jonah Lucas, Sean Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MARQ -6.5	MARQ -7.4	MARQ +0.9	L DAY covered
Total	151.5	153.8	Over 2.3	L Under
Projected score	—	DAY 73.2 · MARQ 80.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MARQ -4.3	DAY -5.0
1H total	72.0	73
1H projected score	DAY 33.9 · MARQ 38.2	DAY 39 · MARQ 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAY WLLL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-1
MARQ WLLWL	2-3	40%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: DAY away, as underdog; MARQ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAY UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1
MARQ UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAYlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%
MARQlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DAY 1–0 MARQDAY leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DAY 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 14, 2024-25	MARQ 63 @ DAY 71	DAY +1.5	DAY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Dayton

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAN	W 88-48	-25.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	vsUMBC	W 77-71	-25.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@CIN	L 62-74	+5.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 15	vsBCU	W 91-82	-21.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

+14.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−19.5

CIN

L 62-74

−6.5

BCU

W 91-82

−12.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

−6.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−6.5

CIN

L 62-74

−11.5

BCU

W 91-82

+24.5

over 1under 3avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −4.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMD	L 82-89	-8.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

L 82-89

−15.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

L 82-89

+24.5

over 3under 2avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Dayton @ Marquette

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Dayton

Marquette

Dayton

Marquette