Fifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati
Closing line
CIN -25.5✓ MSM covered by 8.5
CIN -25.5✓ MSM covered by 8.5Closing total145.5Under by 18.5
 MSM | This season | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 3-0 |
| 2-1 | ATS | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | O/U | 1-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSM 58–82 CIN · ✓ CIN (98%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSM | 36 | 19 | 55 |
| CIN | 30 | 42 | 72 |
1st half: MSM 36, CIN 30 (MSM by 6). The model had CIN by 13.8 and a total of 65.6 (actual 66).
Team stats
| MSM | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-56 38% | Field goals | 24-64 38% |
| 10-27 37% | 3-pointers | 6-29 21% |
| 3-10 30% | Free throws | 18-30 60% |
| 36 7 off | Rebounds | 46 15 off |
| 12 | Assists | 15 |
| 1 | Steals | 8 |
| 1 | Blocks | 8 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| MSM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Lipscomb G | 35 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 5-8 | 3-6 |
| Trey Deveaux F | 31 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-12 | 3-7 |
| Luke McEldon F | 25 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-1 |
| Mason So G | 24 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Justin Amadi F | 21 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Arlandus Keyes G | 24 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2-9 | 2-6 |
| Anastasios Rozakeas G | 24 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Patrick Haigh G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Yakhya Diop F | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Espinosa F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Anthony Arrington Jr., Jaxon Hartman, Abdou Khadre Kebe, John Miller IV, Justin May, Noah Rogers
| CIN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baba Miller F | 33 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Kerr Kriisa G | 32 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1-9 | 1-9 |
| Moustapha Thiam C | 27 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-3 |
| Day Day Thomas G | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 4-6 | 3-3 |
| Shon Abaev F | 21 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-11 | 0-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sencire Harris G | 22 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Keyshuan Tillery G | 14 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Jalen Celestine G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Halvine Dzellat C | 10 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Tyler McKinley F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Grant Darbyshire, Jalen Haynes, Bryson Buckingham, Lucas Atauri, Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCIN -26.5
1 → MSM
CloseCIN -25.5
1 pt toward MSM
Total
Open147.5
▼ 2
Close145.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
MSM +4000 · CIN -100000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CIN -26.5 · closed CIN -25.5 · moved 1 toward MSMmodel CIN -23
model CIN -23
Opened 147.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 2 downmodel 140
model 140
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CIN -25.5 | CIN -23.1 | MSM +2.4 | W MSM covered |
| Total | 145.5 | 139.9 | Under 5.6 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | MSM 58.4 · CIN 81.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | CIN -13.8 | MSM -6.0 |
| 1H total | 65.6 | 66 |
| 1H projected score | MSM 25.9 · CIN 39.7 | MSM 36 · CIN 30 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSMlast 3 | 1-2 33% | 2-1 67% | 0-3 0% |
| CINlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 2-1 67% | 1-2 33% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mount St Marys
3 games played
Straight up
1-2
33% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-3
0% overs · avg −10.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@
WVU
WVUL 54-70
+3.5
7
vs
BUCK
BUCKL 62-73
−12.5
11
@
SFPA
SFPAW 74-66
+1.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@WVU
WVUL 54-70
−12.5
7
vsBUCK
BUCKL 62-73
−8.5
11
@SFPA
SFPAW 74-66
−9.5
over 0under 3avg −10.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cincinnati
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
WCU
WCUW 94-63
+8.5
7
vs
GAST
GASTW 74-64
−19.5
11
vs
DAY
DAYW 74-62
+6.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+13.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−13.5
11
vsDAY
DAYW 74-62
−11.5
over 1under 2avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mount St Marys
1-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Saint Francis Red Wolves74–66
- Lvs Bucknell62–73
- L@ West Virginia54–70
5 days since their last game.
Cincinnati
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Dayton74–62
- Wvs Georgia St74–64
- Wvs W Carolina94–63
5 days since their last game.