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NFL first-half team trends · 2025

NFL first-half team trends, 2025

Who covers the 1st half, who goes over or under at halftime, who starts fast and who finishes strong. Graded against 1st-half lines (real ESPN lines for the NFL from 2025, otherwise estimated).

Best 1st-half ATS

4+ games
1New England Patriots16-576.2%
2Pittsburgh Steelers13-572.2%
3Seattle Seahawks13-765%
4Cleveland Browns11-664.7%
5Jacksonville Jaguars11-761.1%
6Philadelphia Eagles10-7-158.8%
7Atlanta Falcons10-758.8%
8Miami Dolphins10-758.8%

Worst 1st-half ATS

4+ games
1New Orleans Saints3-1417.6%
2New York Jets5-1229.4%
3Buffalo Bills6-1331.6%
4Kansas City Chiefs6-10-137.5%
5Tennessee Titans6-10-137.5%
6Las Vegas Raiders7-1041.2%
7Baltimore Ravens7-1041.2%
8Chicago Bears8-1142.1%

1st-half overs

Over the 1H total
1Dallas Cowboys16-194.1%
2Cincinnati Bengals12-570.6%
3New York Giants12-570.6%
4San Francisco 49ers13-668.4%
5Arizona Cardinals10-758.8%
6Buffalo Bills11-857.9%
7Los Angeles Rams11-955%
8Tampa Bay Buccaneers9-852.9%

1st-half unders

Under the 1H total
1Las Vegas Raiders3-13-181.3% U
2Kansas City Chiefs4-1376.5% U
3Minnesota Vikings5-1270.6% U
4Seattle Seahawks6-1470% U
5Los Angeles Chargers6-1266.7% U
6Pittsburgh Steelers6-1266.7% U
7Denver Broncos7-1263.2% U
8Chicago Bears7-1263.2% U

Fast starters

Ahead in the 1st half, better than in the 2nd
1Miami Dolphins1H +2.22H -6.7
2Atlanta Falcons1H +1.92H -4.7
3Pittsburgh Steelers1H +2.32H -3.1
4New England Patriots1H +6.72H +2.0
5Philadelphia Eagles1H +3.72H -0.9
6Detroit Lions1H +3.62H +0.4
7Jacksonville Jaguars1H +5.22H +2.3
8Indianapolis Colts1H +2.92H +0.2

Active 1H cover streaks

Consecutive 1st halves covered or missed
1Minnesota VikingsCovered 5
2Seattle SeahawksCovered 4
3Atlanta FalconsCovered 2
4Cleveland BrownsCovered 2
5Miami DolphinsCovered 2
6New York GiantsCovered 2
7Denver BroncosCovered 2
8Baltimore RavensCovered 2

1st-half ATS splits

Home / away, 1st-half favorite / underdog, last 5 games and current streak
TeamGP1H ATSCover %HomeAwayAs favAs dogLast 51H O-UStreak
New England Patriots2116-576.2% 8-38-1 11-45-1 2-311-10 L2
Pittsburgh Steelers1813-572.2% 8-14-4 5-38-2 3-26-12 W1
Seattle Seahawks2013-765% 7-35-4 10-53-2 4-16-14 W4
Cleveland Browns1711-664.7% 6-24-4 2-19-5 3-29-8 W2
Jacksonville Jaguars1811-761.1% 6-35-3 5-46-3 3-28-10 L1
Philadelphia Eagles1810-7-158.8% 4-4-16-3 7-7-13-0 2-2-17-11 —
Atlanta Falcons1710-758.8% 6-23-5 4-66-1 4-18-9 W2
Miami Dolphins1710-758.8% 5-35-3 4-26-5 3-28-9 W2
New York Giants1710-758.8% 4-46-3 1-29-5 2-312-5 W2
Houston Texans1911-857.9% 6-35-5 6-55-3 2-38-10-1 L2
San Francisco 49ers199-8-252.9% 4-3-15-5-1 6-3-13-5-1 2-2-113-6 L1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers179-852.9% 4-45-4 5-54-3 1-49-8 W1
Detroit Lions179-852.9% 4-45-4 6-53-3 3-29-8 W1
Los Angeles Rams2010-1050% 5-34-7 8-92-1 1-411-9 L3
Green Bay Packers189-950% 5-34-6 7-82-1 3-27-11 W1
Denver Broncos199-1047.4% 5-63-4 6-63-4 2-37-12 W2
Los Angeles Chargers188-9-147.1% 4-43-5-1 4-84-1-1 2-2-16-12 L1
Dallas Cowboys178-947.1% 3-55-4 4-64-3 1-416-1 L1
Cincinnati Bengals178-947.1% 4-54-4 5-23-7 3-212-5 L1
Indianapolis Colts178-947.1% 4-44-4 4-54-4 2-38-9 L1
Arizona Cardinals178-947.1% 5-33-6 4-14-8 1-410-7 L2
Washington Commanders178-947.1% 3-54-4 2-16-8 3-27-10 W1
Minnesota Vikings178-947.1% 5-33-4 4-44-5 5-05-12 W5
Carolina Panthers188-1044.4% 5-43-6 1-17-9 4-18-10 W1
Chicago Bears198-1142.1% 5-53-6 2-46-7 1-47-12 W1
Las Vegas Raiders177-1041.2% 4-53-5 2-15-9 2-33-13-1 W1
Baltimore Ravens177-1041.2% 2-75-3 4-93-1 3-27-10 W2
Kansas City Chiefs176-10-137.5% 4-4-12-5 4-9-12-1 1-3-14-13 L1
Tennessee Titans176-10-137.5% 5-41-6-1 —6-10-1 2-2-19-8 L1
Buffalo Bills196-1331.6% 2-74-6 5-131-0 3-211-8 L1
New York Jets175-1229.4% 3-52-6 0-25-10 1-49-8 L2
New Orleans Saints173-1417.6% 0-83-6 0-33-11 1-49-8 L4

Starts and finishes

1st half vs 2nd half: margins, leads that held or slipped, and halves that split from the full game
TeamGPAt half1H margin2H margin1H shareLed, lostTrailed, won1H cover onlyGame cover only
Miami Dolphins17 8-7-2+2.2-6.7 59% 2021
Atlanta Falcons17 9-4-4+1.9-4.7 57% 2042
Pittsburgh Steelers18 11-6-1+2.3-3.1 50% 4251
New England Patriots21 17-2-2+6.7+2.0 59% 2042
Philadelphia Eagles18 10-6-2+3.7-0.9 56% 3222
Cleveland Browns17 7-9-1-1.2-4.6 58% 3152
Detroit Lions17 8-6-3+3.6+0.4 53% 1110
Jacksonville Jaguars18 11-7+5.2+2.3 52% 2423
Indianapolis Colts17 9-8+2.9+0.2 54% 3213
Seattle Seahawks20 13-5-2+7.5+4.8 50% 1324
Green Bay Packers18 10-6-2+2.0-0.5 45% 4242
Dallas Cowboys17 7-9-1-0.3-2.1 57% 1221
Houston Texans19 13-6+3.2+3.2 50% 2232
Arizona Cardinals17 6-10-1-3.9-3.9 52% 3042
New York Giants17 8-8-1-1.8-1.6 52% 4010
San Francisco 49ers19 11-8+0.8+1.1 52% 0222
Cincinnati Bengals17 8-9-2.5-2.1 48% 3133
Los Angeles Rams20 12-6-2+4.0+4.8 50% 3324
Los Angeles Chargers18 8-8-20.0+0.8 51% 0211
Baltimore Ravens17 7-7-3+0.3+1.2 43% 2332
Kansas City Chiefs17 7-7-3+0.5+1.5 47% 3111
Tampa Bay Buccaneers17 8-8-1-1.4-0.4 51% 1040
Minnesota Vikings17 6-9-2-0.2+0.8 49% 1222
Tennessee Titans17 4-13-6.2-5.2 49% 3223
Denver Broncos19 9-7-3+1.7+3.0 48% 1544
Las Vegas Raiders17 4-11-2-6.5-4.7 44% 2122
Washington Commanders17 5-9-3-3.9-1.6 47% 1032
Chicago Bears19 7-11-1-1.4+2.8 43% 1616
Carolina Panthers18 5-12-1-5.2+1.2 44% 1425
Buffalo Bills19 8-10-1-0.9+7.1 43% 0414
New York Jets17 2-13-2-10.3-1.6 40% 2113
New Orleans Saints17 3-14-7.1+2.6 46% 0305

1st-half trend signals

Backtest 2016–26: each game graded with the teams’ records from earlier that season · break-even 52.4%
SignalRuleRecordVerdict
Hot 1st-half cover teamCovered 70%+ of 1st halves this season (5+ decisions)190-186 (50.5%)No edge
Fade a cold 1st-half teamOpponent covered 30% or less of 1st halves this season (5+ decisions)184-185 (49.9%)No edge
1st-half over teamsBoth teams went over in 65%+ of their 1st halves (4+ each)40-30 (57.1%)Not proven yet
1st-half under teamsBoth teams went under in 65%+ of their 1st halves (4+ each)48-49 (49.5%)No edge
Fast starter edgeAverage 1st-half margins point past the 1st-half line337-341 (49.7%)No edge
These trends appear on the weekly Halftime table when a game qualifies. None has a proven edge yet, so they describe the data rather than pick bets.