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NFL · 1st half

NFL first-half team trends · 2024

NFL first-half team trends, 2024

Who covers the 1st half, who goes over or under at halftime, who starts fast and who finishes strong. Graded against 1st-half lines (real ESPN lines for the NFL from 2025, otherwise estimated).

Best 1st-half ATS

4+ games
1Houston Texans14-573.7%
2Detroit Lions13-572.2%
3Los Angeles Chargers12-5-170.6%
4Denver Broncos11-664.7%
5Cincinnati Bengals11-664.7%
6Philadelphia Eagles13-861.9%
7Minnesota Vikings11-761.1%
8Washington Commanders12-860%

Worst 1st-half ATS

4+ games
1Pittsburgh Steelers5-1229.4%
2Chicago Bears5-1229.4%
3New York Giants5-1229.4%
4Cleveland Browns5-11-131.3%
5New England Patriots6-1135.3%
6Jacksonville Jaguars6-1135.3%
7Carolina Panthers6-1135.3%
8Tennessee Titans7-1041.2%

1st-half overs

Over the 1H total
1Carolina Panthers14-382.4%
2Denver Broncos12-4-175%
3Tampa Bay Buccaneers11-6-164.7%
4Buffalo Bills12-7-163.2%
5Atlanta Falcons10-6-162.5%
6Detroit Lions11-761.1%
7Washington Commanders12-860%
8Arizona Cardinals10-758.8%

1st-half unders

Under the 1H total
1Pittsburgh Steelers6-1164.7% U
2Miami Dolphins6-1164.7% U
3Jacksonville Jaguars6-1164.7% U
4Cleveland Browns6-1164.7% U
5Los Angeles Rams7-1263.2% U
6Philadelphia Eagles8-12-160% U
7Chicago Bears7-1058.8% U
8Tennessee Titans7-1058.8% U

Fast starters

Ahead in the 1st half, better than in the 2nd
1San Francisco 49ers1H +2.82H -5.5
2New Orleans Saints1H +1.52H -5.1
3Houston Texans1H +3.12H -2.5
4Los Angeles Chargers1H +4.92H -0.4
5Washington Commanders1H +4.52H -0.6
6Indianapolis Colts1H +0.42H -3.4
7Atlanta Falcons1H +0.32H -2.3
8Baltimore Ravens1H +5.72H +3.2

Active 1H cover streaks

Consecutive 1st halves covered or missed
1Cincinnati BengalsCovered 5
2Atlanta FalconsCovered 4
3Philadelphia EaglesCovered 2
4Denver BroncosCovered 2
5Los Angeles RamsCovered 2
6Pittsburgh SteelersMissed 5
7Tennessee TitansMissed 4
8Green Bay PackersMissed 3

1st-half ATS splits

Home / away, 1st-half favorite / underdog, last 5 games and current streak
TeamGP1H ATSCover %HomeAwayAs favAs dogLast 51H O-UStreak
Houston Texans1914-573.7% 7-27-3 9-25-3 2-310-9 L1
Detroit Lions1813-572.2% 7-36-2 12-51-0 2-311-7 L1
Los Angeles Chargers1812-5-170.6% 5-2-17-3 9-4-13-1 3-29-9 L1
Denver Broncos1811-664.7% 5-26-4 6-25-4 3-212-4-1 W2
Cincinnati Bengals1711-664.7% 4-47-2 8-53-1 5-09-8 W5
Philadelphia Eagles2113-861.9% 6-56-2 10-73-1 4-18-12-1 W2
Minnesota Vikings1811-761.1% 5-35-4 6-65-1 3-28-10 L2
Washington Commanders2012-860% 5-47-4 7-45-4 2-312-8 L1
Atlanta Falcons1710-758.8% 5-45-3 7-43-3 4-110-6-1 W4
New Orleans Saints179-7-156.3% 6-33-4-1 3-16-6-1 2-37-8-2 W1
Kansas City Chiefs2011-955% 6-45-4 10-71-2 3-210-9-1 L1
Dallas Cowboys179-852.9% 3-66-2 2-17-7 3-210-7 W1
Buffalo Bills2010-1050% 5-55-5 7-73-3 2-312-7-1 L1
Baltimore Ravens199-9-150% 5-44-5-1 9-8-10-1 3-29-7-3 L1
Los Angeles Rams199-9-150% 6-3-13-6 3-46-5-1 3-1-17-12 W2
Green Bay Packers189-950% 5-43-5 6-63-3 2-38-10 L3
Seattle Seahawks178-8-150% 3-65-2-1 3-2-15-6 2-2-17-10 —
Arizona Cardinals178-947.1% 6-32-6 4-44-5 2-310-7 W1
Indianapolis Colts178-947.1% 4-44-5 3-45-5 3-27-10 W1
Las Vegas Raiders178-947.1% 3-55-4 2-16-8 2-39-7-1 L1
San Francisco 49ers178-947.1% 5-43-5 7-61-3 2-39-8 L1
New York Jets178-947.1% 5-33-5 6-52-4 3-28-9 W1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers188-1044.4% 4-64-4 4-64-4 1-411-6-1 L2
Tennessee Titans177-1041.2% 3-54-5 2-45-6 1-47-10 L4
Miami Dolphins177-1041.2% 3-54-5 3-64-4 2-36-11 L1
New England Patriots176-1135.3% 3-53-5 —6-11 3-29-8 W1
Jacksonville Jaguars176-1135.3% 4-31-7 2-24-9 2-36-11 L1
Carolina Panthers176-1135.3% 3-52-6 0-16-10 2-314-3 L2
Cleveland Browns175-11-131.3% 2-5-13-6 0-45-7-1 1-46-11 W1
Pittsburgh Steelers185-1229.4% 2-63-6 2-53-7 0-56-11 L5
Chicago Bears175-1229.4% 3-51-7 2-23-10 1-47-10 W1
New York Giants175-1229.4% 1-84-3 0-25-10 1-48-9 L1

Starts and finishes

1st half vs 2nd half: margins, leads that held or slipped, and halves that split from the full game
TeamGPAt half1H margin2H margin1H shareLed, lostTrailed, won1H cover onlyGame cover only
San Francisco 49ers17 9-7-1+2.8-5.5 54% 4141
New Orleans Saints17 10-7+1.5-5.1 61% 5042
Houston Texans19 14-5+3.1-2.5 57% 3061
Los Angeles Chargers18 12-6+4.9-0.4 56% 3233
Washington Commanders20 11-7-2+4.5-0.6 51% 2434
Indianapolis Colts17 7-9-1+0.4-3.4 50% 2234
Atlanta Falcons17 10-7+0.3-2.3 59% 4241
Baltimore Ravens19 13-6+5.7+3.2 50% 2213
Cincinnati Bengals17 12-4-1+2.4-0.1 48% 3021
Detroit Lions18 13-5+6.8+4.7 54% 0221
Minnesota Vikings18 11-6-1+3.3+1.3 49% 0301
Kansas City Chiefs20 13-7+1.8+0.8 53% 0441
Dallas Cowboys17 8-8-1-3.0-3.9 50% 2020
Las Vegas Raiders17 4-12-1-3.6-3.8 47% 2132
New York Jets17 7-10-2.0-1.9 49% 5353
Philadelphia Eagles21 15-4-2+5.2+5.7 47% 2323
Seattle Seahawks17 8-8-1-0.3+0.7 50% 1331
Denver Broncos18 10-8+1.9+3.1 51% 3323
New England Patriots17 6-11-4.4-3.1 48% 3113
Tennessee Titans17 7-9-1-5.2-3.6 49% 4050
Jacksonville Jaguars17 6-11-4.2-2.6 46% 3126
Los Angeles Rams19 6-11-2-1.0+0.6 43% 1434
Miami Dolphins17 9-8-1.6+0.5 44% 3222
Arizona Cardinals17 8-9-0.5+1.8 52% 2203
Green Bay Packers18 9-9+1.9+4.2 49% 1322
New York Giants17 3-12-2-5.7-2.6 45% 1022
Cleveland Browns17 2-13-2-7.1-3.4 41% 0120
Carolina Panthers17 4-13-7.7-3.6 52% 1202
Buffalo Bills20 11-9+2.4+6.7 47% 0402
Tampa Bay Buccaneers18 7-10-1+0.8+5.6 50% 1413
Pittsburgh Steelers18 5-12-1-2.7+3.7 43% 0405
Chicago Bears17 5-12-5.4+1.9 41% 1104

1st-half trend signals

Backtest 2016–26: each game graded with the teams’ records from earlier that season · break-even 52.4%
SignalRuleRecordVerdict
Hot 1st-half cover teamCovered 70%+ of 1st halves this season (5+ decisions)190-186 (50.5%)No edge
Fade a cold 1st-half teamOpponent covered 30% or less of 1st halves this season (5+ decisions)184-185 (49.9%)No edge
1st-half over teamsBoth teams went over in 65%+ of their 1st halves (4+ each)40-30 (57.1%)Not proven yet
1st-half under teamsBoth teams went under in 65%+ of their 1st halves (4+ each)48-49 (49.5%)No edge
Fast starter edgeAverage 1st-half margins point past the 1st-half line337-341 (49.7%)No edge
These trends appear on the weekly Halftime table when a game qualifies. None has a proven edge yet, so they describe the data rather than pick bets.