Evansville Purple Aces at Purdue Boilermakers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 4, 6:30 PM ETMackey Arena · at Purdue

#255EVANEvansville51final

Final

#23PURPurdue AP #182▲ winner

Closing linePUR -33.5✓ EVAN covered by 2.5

Closing total150.5Under by 17.5

Season records: Evansville and Purdue
EVAN	This season	PUR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EVAN 55–94 PUR · ✓ PUR (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EVAN	22	29	51
PUR	41	41	82

1st half: EVAN 22, PUR 41 (PUR by 19). The model had PUR by 23.6 and a total of 69.9 (actual 63).

Team stats

EVAN		PUR
21-70 30%	Field goals	28-59 47%
7-34 21%	3-pointers	13-29 45%
2-4 50%	Free throws	13-16 81%
40 20 off	Rebounds	40 12 off
13	Assists	22
2	Steals	4
2	Blocks	4
10	Turnovers	7
15	Fouls	9
22	Points in paint	22
3	Fast-break points	14

Players

EVAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Leif Moeller G	31	0	2	3	0-9	0-5
Joshua Hughes F	30	15	11	1	6-12	3-7
AJ Casey F	29	14	9	2	6-13	0-3
Keishon Porter G	29	2	3	2	1-11	0-3
Alex Hemenway G	11	3	0	0	1-6	1-4
Bench
Bryce Quinet G	29	4	2	1	2-9	0-4
Trent Hundley F	17	9	1	1	3-8	3-8
James Dyson-Merwe F	16	4	7	2	2-2	0-0
Kaia Berridge G	8	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Leo Amari IV, Dakota Candler, Weston Aigner, Connor Turnbull, Marlon Barnes Jr., Aaron Gutman

PUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braden Smith G	30	6	2	11	3-9	0-2
Fletcher Loyer G	28	30	0	1	8-11	7-10
Jack Benter G	22	11	6	2	4-7	3-6
C.J. Cox G	20	0	2	2	0-0	0-0
Oscar Cluff C	19	9	10	3	3-5	0-0
Bench
Daniel Jacobsen C	21	11	8	0	4-10	0-2
Gicarri Harris G	20	3	3	2	1-6	1-3
Liam Murphy F	18	3	0	0	1-3	1-3
Omer Mayer G	18	7	2	1	3-7	1-3
Jace Rayl G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Aaron Fine G	1	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jack Lusk G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Antione West Jr, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess, Trey Kaufman-Renn

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PUR -33.5	PUR -39.1	PUR +5.6	L EVAN covered
Total	150.5	149.3	Under 1.2	W Under
Projected score	—	EVAN 55.1 · PUR 94.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PUR -23.6	PUR -19.0
1H total	69.9	63
1H projected score	EVAN 23.1 · PUR 46.8	EVAN 22 · PUR 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2024-25 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2024-25 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EVAN WWWWL	15-16	48%	7-8	14-14
PUR LLWWW	20-16	56%	10-6	16-11

Venue/role: EVAN away, as underdog; PUR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2024-25 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
EVAN OOOUU	13-18	42%	10-21
PUR UOUUU	19-17	53%	24-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2024-25

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EVAN	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
PUR	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2024-25

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Evansville

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L L L L W W L L L L L W W L W L L L L W W W L L L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L L W W W L L L L W W L W L L W L W W W L L L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1842%

O U O U O U U U U U U U U U U U U O O O O O U O U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@UNT	L 63-80	+13.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 143
Nov 13	@MTSU	L 63-80	+10.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 16	vsRAD	L 81-92	-3.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 19	@OSU	L 30-80	+24.5	L −25.5	148.5	U 110
Nov 22	vsGB	W 98-81	+1.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsCAM	W 66-53	-3.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 119
Dec 3	@MUR	L 61-63	+13.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 124
Dec 7	vsWKU	L 65-79	+6.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 144
Dec 12	vsUTC	L 67-75	+1.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 18	@UTA	L 54-80	+9.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 134
Dec 21	@BALL	L 43-80	+4.5	L −32.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 29	vsMOST	W 57-40	+4.5	W +21.5	133.5	U 97
Jan 1	@SIU	W 68-53	+7.5	W +22.5	138.5	U 121
Jan 4	vsINST	L 62-66	+3.5	L −0.5	150.5	U 128
Jan 8	vsILST	W 69-51	+5.5	W +23.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 11	@DRKE	L 40-63	+15.5	L −7.5	120.5	U 103
Jan 14	@UNI	L 56-73	+13.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 129
Jan 18	vsBEL	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 167
Jan 22	vsUIC	L 67-78	+5.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 25	@VAL	W 78-68	+7.5	W +17.5	141.5	O 146
Jan 29	vsMUR	W 78-74	+5.5	W +9.5	134.5	O 152
Feb 2	@BEL	W 80-75	+10.5	W +15.5	152.5	O 155
Feb 5	vsSIU	L 59-68	-1.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 127
Feb 8	vsBRAD	L 74-80	+5.5	L −0.5	138.5	O 154
Feb 12	@MOST	L 54-71	+3.5	L −13.5	132.5	U 125
Feb 16	vsVAL	W 79-69	+1.5	W +11.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 19	@INST	W 79-74	+7.5	W +12.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 22	@UIC	L 77-82	+7.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 159
Feb 26	vsDRKE	L 61-65	+8.5	W +4.5	125.5	O 126
Mar 2	@ILST	L 53-62	+11.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 115
Mar 6	vsMUR	L 53-74	+5.5	L −15.5	129.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNT

L 63-80

−3.5

MTSU

L 63-80

−6.5

RAD

L 81-92

−14.5

OSU

L 30-80

−25.5

W 98-81

+18.5

CAM

W 66-53

+9.5

MUR

L 61-63

+11.5

WKU

L 65-79

−7.5

UTC

L 67-75

−6.5

UTA

L 54-80

−16.5

BALL

L 43-80

−32.5

MOST

W 57-40

+21.5

SIU

W 68-53

+22.5

INST

L 62-66

−0.5

ILST

W 69-51

+23.5

DRKE

L 40-63

−7.5

UNI

L 56-73

−3.5

BEL

L 82-85

+2.5

UIC

L 67-78

−5.5

VAL

W 78-68

+17.5

MUR

W 78-74

+9.5

BEL

W 80-75

+15.5

SIU

L 59-68

−10.5

BRAD

L 74-80

−0.5

MOST

L 54-71

−13.5

VAL

W 79-69

+11.5

INST

W 79-74

+12.5

UIC

L 77-82

+2.5

DRKE

L 61-65

+4.5

ILST

L 53-62

+2.5

MUR

L 53-74

−15.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNT

L 63-80

+9.5

MTSU

L 63-80

−1.5

RAD

L 81-92

+29.5

OSU

L 30-80

−38.5

W 98-81

+27.5

CAM

W 66-53

−25.5

MUR

L 61-63

−21.5

WKU

L 65-79

−8.5

UTC

L 67-75

−6.5

UTA

L 54-80

−17.5

BALL

L 43-80

−16.5

MOST

W 57-40

−36.5

SIU

W 68-53

−17.5

INST

L 62-66

−22.5

ILST

W 69-51

−11.5

DRKE

L 40-63

−17.5

UNI

L 56-73

−3.5

BEL

L 82-85

+19.5

UIC

L 67-78

+2.5

VAL

W 78-68

+4.5

MUR

W 78-74

+17.5

BEL

W 80-75

+2.5

SIU

L 59-68

−14.5

BRAD

L 74-80

+15.5

MOST

L 54-71

−7.5

VAL

W 79-69

+5.5

INST

W 79-74

+3.5

UIC

L 77-82

+13.5

DRKE

L 61-65

+0.5

ILST

L 53-62

−26.5

MUR

L 53-74

−2.5

over 13under 18avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Purdue

36 games played

Straight up

24-12

67% wins

Against the spread

20-16

56% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-17

53% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1267%

W W W W L W W W L W L L W W W W W W W L W W W W L L L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1656%

L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W W W W L W L W W W L L L W W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1753%

O U O U U U U O O O U O U O O U O U U O O O O O U O U U O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsAMCC	W 90-73	-25.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 163
Nov 8	vsNKU	W 72-50	-20.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 122
Nov 11	vsYALE	W 92-84	-14.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsALA	W 87-78	+4.5	W +13.5	165.5	U 165
Nov 19	@MARQ	L 58-76	+5.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsMRSH	W 80-45	-20.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsNCSU	W 71-61	-5.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 132
Nov 29	vsMISS	W 80-78	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 158
Dec 5	@PSU	L 70-81	+2.5	L −8.5	149.5	O 151
Dec 8	vsMD	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 161
Dec 14	vsTA&M	L 66-70	-1.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 21	vsAUB	L 69-87	+10.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 156
Dec 29	vsTOL	W 83-64	-21.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 2	@MINN	W 81-61	-5.5	W +14.5	134.5	O 142
Jan 5	vsNU	W 79-61	-6.5	W +11.5	138.5	O 140
Jan 9	@RUTG	W 68-50	-2.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 118
Jan 12	vsNEB	W 104-68	-8.5	W +27.5	140.5	O 172
Jan 15	@WASH	W 69-58	-7.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 127
Jan 18	@ORE	W 65-58	+2.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 21	vsOSU	L 70-73	-9.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 143
Jan 24	vsMICH	W 91-64	-4.5	W +22.5	150.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsIU	W 81-76	-12.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 157
Feb 4	@IOWA	W 90-81	-6.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 171
Feb 7	vsUSC	W 90-72	-13.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 162
Feb 11	@MICH	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 15	vsWIS	L 84-94	-6.5	L −16.5	151.5	O 178
Feb 18	@MSU	L 66-75	+3.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 141
Feb 23	@IU	L 58-73	-3.5	L −18.5	148.5	U 131
Feb 28	vsUCLA	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 142
Mar 4	vsRUTG	W 100-71	-11.5	W +17.5	150.5	O 171
Mar 7	@ILL	L 80-88	+4.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 168
Mar 13	vsUSC	W 76-71	-10.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 14	vsMICH	L 68-86	-2.5	L −20.5	150.5	O 154
Mar 20	vsHPU	W 75-63	-7.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 138
Mar 22	vsMCN	W 76-62	-6.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 138
Mar 28	vsHOU	L 60-62	+8.5	W +6.5	134.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMCC

W 90-73

−8.5

NKU

W 72-50

+1.5

YALE

W 92-84

−6.5

ALA

W 87-78

+13.5

MARQ

L 58-76

−12.5

MRSH

W 80-45

+14.5

NCSU

W 71-61

+4.5

MISS

W 80-78

−1.5

PSU

L 70-81

−8.5

W 83-78

+0.5

TA&M

L 66-70

−5.5

AUB

L 69-87

−7.5

TOL

W 83-64

−2.5

MINN

W 81-61

+14.5

W 79-61

+11.5

RUTG

W 68-50

+15.5

NEB

W 104-68

+27.5

WASH

W 69-58

+3.5

ORE

W 65-58

+9.5

OSU

L 70-73

−12.5

MICH

W 91-64

+22.5

W 81-76

−7.5

IOWA

W 90-81

+2.5

USC

W 90-72

+4.5

MICH

L 73-75

+0.5

WIS

L 84-94

−16.5

MSU

L 66-75

−5.5

L 58-73

−18.5

UCLA

W 76-66

+4.5

RUTG

W 100-71

+17.5

ILL

L 80-88

−3.5

USC

W 76-71

−5.5

MICH

L 68-86

−20.5

HPU

W 75-63

+4.5

MCN

W 76-62

+7.5

HOU

L 60-62

+6.5

covered 20didn’t cover 16avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMCC

W 90-73

+16.5

NKU

W 72-50

−25.5

YALE

W 92-84

+31.5

ALA

W 87-78

−0.5

MARQ

L 58-76

−18.5

MRSH

W 80-45

−24.5

NCSU

W 71-61

−15.5

MISS

W 80-78

+13.5

PSU

L 70-81

+1.5

W 83-78

+18.5

TA&M

L 66-70

−6.5

AUB

L 69-87

+7.5

TOL

W 83-64

−8.5

MINN

W 81-61

+7.5

W 79-61

+1.5

RUTG

W 68-50

−30.5

NEB

W 104-68

+31.5

WASH

W 69-58

−16.5

ORE

W 65-58

−24.5

OSU

L 70-73

+2.5

MICH

W 91-64

+4.5

W 81-76

+11.5

IOWA

W 90-81

+15.5

USC

W 90-72

+16.5

MICH

L 73-75

−5.5

WIS

L 84-94

+26.5

MSU

L 66-75

−7.5

L 58-73

−17.5

UCLA

W 76-66

+4.5

RUTG

W 100-71

+20.5

ILL

L 80-88

+9.5

USC

W 76-71

−3.5

MICH

L 68-86

+3.5

HPU

W 75-63

−15.5

MCN

W 76-62

−3.5

HOU

L 60-62

−12.5

over 19under 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Evansville @ Purdue

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2024-25

Evansville

Purdue

Evansville

Purdue