Radford Highlanders vs Cleveland State Vikings: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 2:30 PM ETColonial Hall · Neutral site

#246RADRadford82final

Final

#315CLECleveland St87▲ winner

Closing lineRAD -8.5✓ CLE covered by 13.5

Closing total162.5Over by 6.5

Season records: Radford and Cleveland St
RAD	This season	CLE
1-2	Record	0-3
1-2	ATS	2-1
2-1	O/U	3-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: RAD 81–79 CLE · ✗ RAD (58%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
RAD	49	33	82
CLE	36	51	87

1st half: RAD 49, CLE 36 (RAD by 13). The model had RAD by 1.5 and a total of 75.0 (actual 85).

Team stats

RAD		CLE
28-74 38%	Field goals	24-54 44%
6-30 20%	3-pointers	9-26 35%
20-30 67%	Free throws	30-46 65%
46 21 off	Rebounds	43 10 off
11	Assists	18
7	Steals	8
2	Blocks	1
15	Turnovers	16
32	Fouls	23
36	Points in paint	28
6	Fast-break points	16

Players

RAD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Del Jones G	37	19	5	5	8-18	1-4
Tyson Brown F	33	11	13	0	4-6	0-0
Dennis Parker Jr. G	26	15	6	2	5-16	0-4
Jaylon Johnson G	20	6	1	4	2-6	2-4
Mari Jordan G	17	8	4	0	3-6	0-2
Bench
Brennan Rigsby Jr. G	25	8	3	0	3-10	1-7
Lukas Walls G	21	13	6	0	3-4	2-3
Louie Jordan F	12	0	2	0	0-5	0-5
Frederik Erichsen F	9	2	4	0	0-3	0-1

Did not play: Zion Walker, Bradley Land, Gabriel Ferreira, Warren Keel Jr., Diogo Alves

CLE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josiah Harris F	37	16	15	4	5-9	4-6
Tre Beard G	33	15	1	6	3-10	2-7
Dayan Nessah G	28	20	8	1	6-11	0-0
Foster Wonders G	26	9	4	1	3-7	2-6
Jaidon Lipscomb G	12	0	2	1	0-4	0-4
Bench
Preist Ryan F	26	8	5	2	2-4	0-0
Chevalier Emery G	19	13	1	2	3-3	1-1
Manny Hill G	13	6	2	1	2-4	0-1
Kamari Jones G	3	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Ivan Spirov F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Holden Pierre-Louis, David Giddens, Waqo Tessema, Lucas Burton, Kevo St. Hilaire

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	RAD -8.5	RAD -2.2	CLE +6.3	W CLE covered
Total	162.5	160.2	Under 2.3	L Over
Projected score	—	RAD 81.2 · CLE 79

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RAD -1.5	RAD -13.0
1H total	75.0	85
1H projected score	RAD 38.3 · CLE 36.8	RAD 49 · CLE 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
RAD LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-2
CLE WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: RAD neutral site, as favorite; CLE neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
RAD OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
CLE OOO	3-0	100%	0-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RADlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
CLElast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Radford

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −15.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIU	W 80-75	-16.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 11	@UNC	L 74-89	+20.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsWRST	L 59-92	-6.5	L −39.5	156.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

−11.5

UNC

L 74-89

+5.5

WRST

L 59-92

−39.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −15.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

+3.5

UNC

L 74-89

+0.5

WRST

L 59-92

−5.5

over 2under 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cleveland St

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +26.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LUC	L 88-91	+17.5	W +14.5	151.5	O 179
Nov 10	@NU	L 63-110	+23.5	L −23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsKENT	L 95-102	+11.5	W +4.5	165.5	O 197

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+14.5

L 63-110

−23.5

KENT

L 95-102

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LUC

L 88-91

+27.5

L 63-110

+21.5

KENT

L 95-102

+31.5

over 3under 0avg +26.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Radford vs Cleveland St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Radford

Cleveland St

Radford

Cleveland St