North Dakota Fighting Hawks at UC Riverside Highlanders: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 5:00 PM ETSRC Arena · at UC Riverside

#336UNDNorth Dakota76▲ winner

Final

Closing lineUCR -3.5✓ UND covered by 5.5

Closing total148.5Over by 1.5

Season records: North Dakota and UC Riverside
UND	This season	UCR
0-3	Record	1-1
1-2	ATS	2-0
1-2	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UND 74–80 UCR · ✗ UCR (71%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UND	41	35	76
UCR	32	42	74

1st half: UND 41, UCR 32 (UND by 9). The model had UCR by 3.7 and a total of 71.9 (actual 73).

Team stats

UND		UCR
30-65 46%	Field goals	26-53 49%
9-24 38%	3-pointers	9-27 33%
7-14 50%	Free throws	13-21 62%
32 10 off	Rebounds	39 8 off
9	Assists	15
13	Steals	4
1	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	21
20	Fouls	15
42	Points in paint	32
12	Fast-break points	0

Players

UND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Garrett Anderson G	32	10	6	1	4-8	2-3
Eli King G	27	10	6	1	4-8	0-2
Greyson Uelmen G	23	18	3	1	8-14	0-2
Josh Jones C	14	0	2	1	0-2	0-1
Micah Curtis F	11	0	0	0	0-5	0-1
Bench
Zach Kraft G	27	14	2	0	5-8	4-7
Marley Curtis F	24	15	3	1	5-9	3-5
George Natsvlishvili F	21	4	4	0	2-3	0-0
Anthony Smith III G	19	5	1	4	2-7	0-2
Matthew Bothun F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Wylee Delorme, Karson Ouse, Reggie Thomas, Anthony Doppler, Ryan Erikson

UCR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Osiris Grady F	40	10	11	1	5-6	0-1
Marqui Worthy Jr. G	39	20	6	7	6-12	2-6
Jailen Daniel-Dalton F	39	11	6	2	5-11	1-5
Andrew Henderson G	34	12	6	2	3-12	1-8
BJ Kolly F	18	4	3	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Dylan Godfrey F	16	14	2	0	4-6	4-5
De'Undrae Perteete Jr. G	12	3	1	2	1-2	1-1
Denzel Hines F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ben Waller G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Gavin Haase, Amaury McKinney, EJ Spillman, Tyler Jones, Daniel Tobiloba, Parker Strauss

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCR -3.5	UCR -6.3	UCR +2.8	L UND covered
Total	148.5	153.4	Over 4.9	W Over
Projected score	—	UND 73.6 · UCR 79.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCR -3.7	UND -9.0
1H total	71.9	73
1H projected score	UND 34.1 · UCR 37.8	UND 41 · UCR 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UND WLL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-1
UCR WW	2-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: UND away, as underdog; UCR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UND UUO	1-2	33%	0-3
UCR UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNDlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
UCRlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UND 0–2 UCRUCR leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · UCR has won the last 2 meetings · UND 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 6, 2025-26	UCR 74 @ UND 70	UND -1.5	UCR W
Dec 3, 2023-24	UND 62 @ UCR 68	UCR -4.5	UCR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Dakota

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ALA	L 62-91	+36.5	W +7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 6	vsUCR	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 9	vsCSUN	L 85-93	+6.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 178

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

+7.5

UCR

L 70-74

−5.5

CSUN

L 85-93

−1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

−17.5

UCR

L 70-74

−2.5

CSUN

L 85-93

+19.5

over 1under 2avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Riverside

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UND	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 11	@UNM	L 68-82	+19.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UND

W 74-70

+5.5

UNM

L 68-82

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UND

W 74-70

−2.5

UNM

L 68-82

+8.5

over 1under 1avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Dakota @ UC Riverside

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

North Dakota

UC Riverside

North Dakota

UC Riverside