Carver-Hawkeye Arena · at Iowa
Closing line
IOWA -15.5✓ IOWA covered by 3.5
IOWA -15.5✓ IOWA covered by 3.5Closing total143.5Under by 0.5
 XAV | This season | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | Record | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | ATS | 1-1 |
| 0-3 | O/U | 1-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: XAV 71–84 IOWA · ✓ IOWA (87%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| XAV | 29 | 33 | 62 |
| IOWA | 45 | 36 | 81 |
1st half: XAV 29, IOWA 45 (IOWA by 16). The model had IOWA by 7.5 and a total of 72.8 (actual 74).
Team stats
| XAV | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-59 39% | Field goals | 29-51 57% |
| 8-33 24% | 3-pointers | 3-11 27% |
| 8-14 57% | Free throws | 20-27 74% |
| 24 7 off | Rebounds | 41 8 off |
| 9 | Assists | 16 |
| 7 | Steals | 5 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 50 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| XAV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Borovicanin F | 35 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 6-12 | 0-4 |
| Tre Carroll F | 35 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5-14 | 2-8 |
| Malik Messina-Moore G | 29 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Jovan Milicevic F | 25 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 5-10 | 2-7 |
| Roddie Anderson G | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| All Wright G | 28 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-3 |
| Isaiah Walker G | 20 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Anthony Robinson F | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kason Westphal, Mier Panoam, Gabriel Pozzato, Michael Wolf, Ian Sabourin, Luke Naser, Henry Thole, Pape N'Diaye
| IOWA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Stirtz G | 40 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 7-13 | 0-1 |
| Tavion Banks G | 30 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 5-7 | 1-1 |
| Cam Manyawu F | 18 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Isaia Howard G | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Cooper Koch F | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kael Combs G | 32 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Alvaro Folgueiras F | 24 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| Tate Sage G | 12 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Brendan Hausen G | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Trevin Jirak C | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Trey Thompson, Peyton McCollum, Joey Matteoni, Jacob Koch
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketIOWA -15.5
ModelIOWA -12.7
Model edgeXAV +2.8
L IOWA covered
Total
Market143.5
Model155.3
Model edgeOver 11.8
L Under
Projected score
XAV 71.3 · IOWA 84
XAV 62 · IOWA 81
Win probability
IOWA 87%
1st half
Spread
IOWA -7.5
IOWA -16.0
Total
72.8
74 points
Projected score
XAV 32.6 · IOWA 40.1
XAV 29 · IOWA 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenIOWA -14.5
1 → IOWA
CloseIOWA -15.5
1 pt toward IOWA
Total
Open145.5
▼ 2
Close143.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
XAV +1100 · IOWA -2500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened IOWA -14.5 · closed IOWA -15.5 · moved 1 toward IOWAmodel IOWA -12.5
model IOWA -12.5
Opened 145.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 2 downmodel 155.5
model 155.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| XAVlast 3 | 2-1 67% | 0-3 0% | 0-3 0% |
| IOWAlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Xavier
3 games played
Straight up
2-1
67% wins
Against the spread
0-3
0% covers · avg −16.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-3
0% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
MRST
MRSTW 66-62
−8.5
6
vs
LEM
LEMW 74-69
−19.5
10
vs
SCU
SCUL 68-87
−22.5
covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −16.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRST
MRSTW 66-62
−11.5
6
vsLEM
LEMW 74-69
−13.5
10
vsSCU
SCUL 68-87
−0.5
over 0under 3avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Iowa
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg +11.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
RMU
RMUW 101-69
+9.5
7
vs
WIU
WIUW 77-58
−11.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+33.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−10.5
over 1under 1avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Xavier
2-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Santa Clara68–87
- Wvs Le Moyne74–69
- Wvs Marist66–62
4 days since their last game.
Iowa
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs W Illinois77–58
- Wvs Robert Morris101–69
A week or more of rest.