William & Mary Tribe at Bowling Green Falcons: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETStroh Center · at Bowling Green

Final

Closing lineBGSU -8.5✓ W&M covered by 16.5

Closing total167.5Under by 11.5

Season records: William & Mary and Bowling Green
W&M	This season	BGSU
1-2	Record	2-1
2-1	ATS	3-0
2-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: W&M 76–83 BGSU · ✗ BGSU (73%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
W&M	41	41	82
BGSU	26	48	74

1st half: W&M 41, BGSU 26 (W&M by 15). The model had BGSU by 4.0 and a total of 74.9 (actual 67).

Team stats

W&M		BGSU
26-56 46%	Field goals	25-58 43%
9-30 30%	3-pointers	3-19 16%
21-24 88%	Free throws	21-27 78%
35 8 off	Rebounds	34 10 off
19	Assists	12
11	Steals	12
5	Blocks	5
18	Turnovers	18
19	Fouls	21
34	Points in paint	44
17	Fast-break points	19

Players

W&M	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kyle Pulliam G	30	13	7	4	2-4	1-3
Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi F	27	16	5	5	6-13	4-7
Kilian Brockhoff F	21	4	4	3	1-11	0-8
Chase Lowe G	20	14	2	0	5-5	0-0
Cade Haskins F	18	2	2	2	0-3	0-3
Bench
Reese Miller G	27	10	4	2	3-8	2-4
Jo'el Emanuel F	20	7	3	1	3-3	0-0
Jhei-R Jones G	20	8	5	2	2-4	2-4
Ryan Jackson Jr. G	17	8	1	0	4-5	0-1

Did not play: Kaleb Spencer, Ethan Connery, Finn Lally, Colin Lamine Ndaw, Kyle Frazier, Miles Hicks

BGSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justin Thomas G	37	10	3	3	3-8	0-3
Sam Towns F	35	10	8	0	4-9	0-2
Javontae Campbell G	32	17	6	4	5-13	0-1
Josiah Shackelford G	32	11	5	2	3-10	0-4
Troy Glover II F	18	6	3	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Javon Ruffin G	28	9	5	2	4-9	1-5
Mayar Wol F	11	9	1	1	2-3	2-3
Jason Kimbrough G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Camden Karel F	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Aiden Goins, Christian Dedivanaj, Makhi Leach, Alijah Adem, Preston Squire, Mohamed Maxamud, Jaxon Pardon, Greg Spurgin

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BGSU -8.5	BGSU -7.0	W&M +1.5	W W&M covered
Total	167.5	159.8	Under 7.7	W Under
Projected score	—	W&M 76.4 · BGSU 83.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BGSU -4.0	W&M -15.0
1H total	74.9	67
1H projected score	W&M 35.4 · BGSU 39.5	W&M 41 · BGSU 26

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
W&M WWL	2-1	67%	2-1	1-1
BGSU WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: W&M away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
W&M OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
BGSU UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
W&Mlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
BGSUlast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

William & Mary

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NORF	W 81-78	-2.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@RICH	L 86-90	+9.5	W +5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 15	@SJU	L 60-93	+28.5	L −4.5	179.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+5.5

SJU

L 60-93

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NORF

W 81-78

+0.5

RICH

L 86-90

+11.5

SJU

L 60-93

−26.5

over 2under 1avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bowling Green

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +13.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXST	W 83-48	-5.5	W +29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 9	vsLEM	W 83-60	-11.5	W +11.5	154.5	U 143
Nov 15	@DAV	L 87-91	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 178

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXST

W 83-48

+29.5

LEM

W 83-60

+11.5

DAV

L 87-91

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +13.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXST

W 83-48

−15.5

LEM

W 83-60

−11.5

DAV

L 87-91

+33.5

over 1under 2avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

William & Mary @ Bowling Green

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

William & Mary

Bowling Green

William & Mary

Bowling Green