Morehead State Eagles at IU Indianapolis Jaguars: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 2:00 PM ETThe Jungle · at IU Indy

Final

#340IUINIU Indy85▲ winner

Closing lineIUIN -3.5✓ IUIN covered by 1.5

Closing total181.5Under by 16.5

Season records: Morehead St and IU Indy
MORE	This season	IUIN
1-4	Record	1-6
2-3	ATS	2-5
2-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MORE 86–87 IUIN · ✓ IUIN (52%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MORE	30	50	80
IUIN	33	52	85

1st half: MORE 30, IUIN 33 (IUIN by 3). The model had IUIN by 0.1 and a total of 80.7 (actual 63).

Team stats

MORE		IUIN
25-61 41%	Field goals	32-70 46%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	14-42 33%
25-32 78%	Free throws	7-9 78%
47 15 off	Rebounds	31 7 off
13	Assists	24
6	Steals	10
0	Blocks	5
22	Turnovers	13
14	Fouls	24
38	Points in paint	32
10	Fast-break points	25

Players

MORE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Davion Cunningham G	35	12	10	4	5-12	1-4
George Marshall G	32	16	5	1	3-12	1-7
Josiah LeGree G	25	11	0	5	3-5	1-1
Anouar Mellouk F	22	8	4	1	3-4	0-1
Tamaury Releford C	12	4	6	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Jon Carroll F	28	19	11	1	6-11	0-0
Chase Dawson G	19	3	0	1	1-6	1-3
Tyonne Farrell F	10	4	2	0	1-2	0-0
Vince Dawson III G	9	0	5	0	0-2	0-1
Clayton Parker F	8	3	2	0	1-4	1-2

Did not play: Jacob Wilson, Kameren Wright, Jarvis Wright, Jaden Priester, Jace Winkleman

IUIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Micah Davis G	34	24	4	6	9-16	6-11
Kyler D'Augustino G	33	25	2	2	11-15	1-3
Finley Woodward F	32	4	7	9	1-4	0-0
Maguire Mitchell G	18	9	1	1	3-6	3-6
Reece Hagy F	11	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
Kameron Tinsley F	22	13	4	0	4-13	2-11
Matt Compas G	16	10	2	2	4-6	2-4
JP Dragas G	15	0	1	2	0-4	0-3
Jaxon Edwards G	10	0	4	0	0-3	0-1
Aiden Miller F	9	0	3	1	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Garrett Sever, Ajay Holubar, Corey Boston, Gabe Stewart, Lav Cvetkovic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	IUIN -3.5	IUIN -0.5	MORE +3.0	L IUIN covered
Total	181.5	172.6	Under 8.9	W Under
Projected score	—	MORE 86.1 · IUIN 86.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IUIN -0.1	IUIN -3.0
1H total	80.7	63
1H projected score	MORE 40.3 · IUIN 40.4	MORE 30 · IUIN 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MORE WLWLL	2-3	40%	2-2	2-2
IUIN LWLLL	2-5	29%	0-1	0-3

Venue/role: MORE away, as underdog; IUIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MORE UOUUO	2-3	40%	1-4
IUIN UUOUO	3-4	43%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MORElast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
IUINlast 7	1-6 14%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MORE 1–0 IUINMORE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MORE 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2021-22	MORE 80 @ IUIN 52	IUIN +15.5	MORE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Morehead St

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +8.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@WAKE	L 65-81	+22.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 146
Nov 9	@UGA	L 81-120	+28.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 201
Nov 11	@CLEM	L 56-83	+29.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 21	@ETSU	L 62-77	+10.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 139
Nov 22	vsULM	W 83-80	-6.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 65-81

+6.5

UGA

L 81-120

−10.5

CLEM

L 56-83

+2.5

ETSU

L 62-77

−4.5

ULM

W 83-80

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 65-81

−6.5

UGA

L 81-120

+50.5

CLEM

L 56-83

−12.5

ETSU

L 62-77

−5.5

ULM

W 83-80

+17.5

over 2under 3avg +8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

IU Indy

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

W L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OSU	L 102-118	+33.5	W +17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 6	vsLIU	L 90-94	-4.5	L −8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 8	@BTLR	L 80-112	+20.5	L −11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 14	@EMU	W 90-83	+4.5	W +11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@CHSO	L 91-103	-1.5	L −13.5	188.5	O 194
Nov 21	vsALST	L 80-101	-2.5	L −23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	@AF	L 85-98	+3.5	L −9.5	175.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+17.5

LIU

L 90-94

−8.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−11.5

EMU

W 90-83

+11.5

CHSO

L 91-103

−13.5

ALST

L 80-101

−23.5

L 85-98

−9.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+47.5

LIU

L 90-94

−1.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−0.5

EMU

W 90-83

−13.5

CHSO

L 91-103

+5.5

ALST

L 80-101

−0.5

L 85-98

+7.5

over 3under 4avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Morehead St @ IU Indy

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Morehead St

IU Indy

Morehead St

IU Indy