Rupp Arena · at Kentucky
Closing line
UK -32.5✓ UK covered by 15.5
UK -32.5✓ UK covered by 15.5Closing total157.5Over by 8.5
 VAL | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | ATS | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | O/U | 0-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VAL 61–92 UK · ✓ UK (100%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 26 | 33 | 59 |
| UK | 58 | 49 | 107 |
1st half: VAL 26, UK 58 (UK by 32). The model had UK by 18.6 and a total of 71.7 (actual 84).
Team stats
| VAL | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-67 28% | Field goals | 37-68 54% |
| 8-34 24% | 3-pointers | 11-28 39% |
| 13-20 65% | Free throws | 22-26 85% |
| 34 12 off | Rebounds | 50 11 off |
| 11 | Assists | 27 |
| 4 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 5 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 22 |
Players
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Dease F | 25 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-5 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 22 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 20 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1-11 | 1-5 |
| Mark Brown Jr. G | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2-7 | 2-4 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Rakim Chaney G | 26 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 5-10 | 2-6 |
| Carter Hopoi F | 21 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Justus McNair G | 17 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Tucker Tornatta F | 15 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Brody Whitaker G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Sader Servilus G | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Joe Vick G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nick Lombardi G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Camden Webster G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Kyonte Thomas G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jayden Watson, Kobe Walker
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Chandler G | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Otega Oweh G | 22 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 6-10 | 1-3 |
| Mo Dioubate F | 20 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-3 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 19 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 18 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jasper Johnson G | 21 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3-5 | 3-4 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 21 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 8-14 | 0-0 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 20 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Jaland Lowe G | 18 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Kam Williams G | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Zach Tow F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Walker Horn G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne, Trent Noah, Reece Potter
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUK -32.5
ModelUK -30.8
Model edgeVAL +1.7
L UK covered
Total
Market157.5
Model153.1
Model edgeUnder 4.4
L Over
Projected score
VAL 61.1 · UK 91.9
VAL 59 · UK 107
Win probability
UK 100%
1st half
Spread
UK -18.6
UK -32.0
Total
71.7
84 points
Projected score
VAL 26.5 · UK 45.1
VAL 26 · UK 58
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUK -32.5
no move
CloseUK -32.5
No change since the open
Total
Open156.5
▲ 1
Close157.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UK -32.5 · unchangedmodel UK -31
model UK -31
Opened 156.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 1 upmodel 153
model 153
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VALlast 1 | 1-0 100% | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% |
| UKlast 1 | 1-0 100% | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Valparaiso
1 game played
Straight up
1-0
100% wins
Against the spread
0-1
0% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-1
0% overs · avg −15.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EIU | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
covered 0didn’t cover 1avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
over 0under 1avg −15.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
1 game played
Straight up
1-0
100% wins
Against the spread
0-1
0% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-1
0% overs · avg −29.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
covered 0didn’t cover 1avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
over 0under 1avg −29.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Valparaiso
1-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs E Illinois66–63
3 days since their last game.
Kentucky
1-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Nicholls77–51
3 days since their last game.