Maine Black Bears vs Longwood Lancers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ETBender Arena · Neutral site

#323MEMaine61final

Final

#218LONGLongwood65▲ winner

Closing lineLONG -5.5✓ ME covered by 1.5

Closing total138.5Under by 12.5

Season records: Maine and Longwood
ME	This season	LONG
0-7	Record	2-4
2-5	ATS	1-5
3-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ME 69–73 LONG · ✓ LONG (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ME	22	39	61
LONG	29	36	65

1st half: ME 22, LONG 29 (LONG by 7). The model had LONG by 2.4 and a total of 66.8 (actual 51).

Team stats

ME		LONG
23-53 43%	Field goals	24-45 53%
8-23 35%	3-pointers	4-12 33%
7-15 47%	Free throws	13-21 62%
27 10 off	Rebounds	36 10 off
10	Assists	11
12	Steals	7
2	Blocks	1
14	Turnovers	19
18	Fouls	19
26	Points in paint	32
14	Fast-break points	3

Players

ME	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Biel F	33	9	5	0	4-8	1-3
Mekhi Gray G	27	16	3	1	5-14	3-9
Ryan Mabrey G	25	12	1	1	4-7	3-5
Bashir N'Galang G	22	0	1	2	0-5	0-2
Keelan Steele F	21	4	3	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Ace Flagg F	23	1	3	3	0-2	0-1
Logan Carey G	21	13	6	3	5-8	1-1
Caleb Crawford G	15	6	3	0	3-4	0-1
Yanis Bamba F	7	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Isaac Bonilla G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Amare Allen G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Joshua Ojuri, Emmitt Byther, Darius Lopes, Killian Gribben, John Shea

LONG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alphonzo Billups III G	32	4	5	3	2-6	0-2
Jacoi Hutchinson G	31	11	4	4	4-8	0-1
Elijah Tucker F	21	13	5	0	5-6	0-0
Jaylin Payne F	21	6	6	0	3-5	0-0
Elijah Kelly G	14	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Emanuel Richards G	33	11	3	2	4-7	0-2
Jaylen Benard G	22	13	6	0	4-7	3-5
Redd Thompson Jr. G	21	5	1	2	1-4	1-2
Isaiah Kalala F	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Jerome Williams G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Gerald Burr III, Quadri Bashiru, Elijah Jones, Johan Nziemi, KJ McClurg

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LONG -5.5	LONG -4.2	ME +1.3	W ME covered
Total	138.5	142.5	Over 4.0	L Under
Projected score	—	ME 69.1 · LONG 73.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LONG -2.4	LONG -7.0
1H total	66.8	51
1H projected score	ME 32.2 · LONG 34.6	ME 22 · LONG 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ME WLLLL	2-5	29%	—	2-5
LONG WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: ME neutral site, as underdog; LONG neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ME OUOUO	3-4	43%	0-7
LONG OOOOU	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MElast 7	0-7 0%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%
LONGlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Maine

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 16	vsQUIN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 134
Nov 19	@MRMK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsBRWN	L 53-58	+1.5	L −3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 28	@AMER	L 61-74	+7.5	L −5.5	133.5	O 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−2.5

MRMK

L 65-72

−0.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−3.5

AMER

L 61-74

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−3.5

MRMK

L 65-72

+6.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−16.5

AMER

L 61-74

+1.5

over 3under 4avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Longwood

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@PITT	L 60-78	+14.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 12	vsJMU	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	vsBING	W 90-82	-15.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUMES	L 82-83	-17.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 23	@COLU	L 70-95	+3.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsSIE	L 63-70	+5.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−3.5

JMU

W 82-72

+11.5

BING

W 90-82

−7.5

UMES

L 82-83

−18.5

COLU

L 70-95

−21.5

SIE

L 63-70

−1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−7.5

JMU

W 82-72

+4.5

BING

W 90-82

+24.5

UMES

L 82-83

+26.5

COLU

L 70-95

+11.5

SIE

L 63-70

−12.5

over 4under 2avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Maine vs Longwood

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Maine

Longwood

Maine

Longwood