Alabama State Hornets at Air Force Falcons: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 6:00 PM ETClune Arena · at Air Force

#302ALSTAlabama St64final

Final

#220AFAir Force66▲ winner

Closing lineAF -2.5✓ ALST covered by 0.5

Closing total138.5Under by 8.5

Season records: Alabama St and Air Force
ALST	This season	AF
1-2	Record	0-4
1-2	ATS	1-3
1-2	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALST 71–71 AF · ✓ AF (53%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALST	39	25	64
AF	32	34	66

1st half: ALST 39, AF 32 (ALST by 7). The model had AF by 0.4 and a total of 66.5 (actual 71).

Team stats

ALST		AF
22-55 40%	Field goals	21-42 50%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	9-21 43%
15-19 79%	Free throws	15-23 65%
24 6 off	Rebounds	33 6 off
4	Assists	15
10	Steals	4
4	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	17
19	Fouls	15
26	Points in paint	24
11	Fast-break points	6

Players

ALST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Micah Simpson G	35	30	1	1	10-17	4-9
Cameron Palesse G	32	2	6	0	1-7	0-2
Asjon Anderson G	31	14	2	2	4-13	1-7
Jerquarius Stanback F	25	8	3	0	3-3	0-0
R'Chaun King F	17	3	3	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Tyler Byrd G	22	5	1	1	2-4	0-1
Damarien Yates F	15	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Tyler Mason F	14	0	2	0	0-4	0-0
Mario Andrews C	9	0	1	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Kevin Alabi, Jordon Marshall, Damion Cox Jr., Tyler Mack, Damarion Bonds, Trey Miller, JaSteven Walker

AF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lucas Hobin F	39	20	2	1	6-13	4-10
Ethan Greenberg G	38	13	4	1	4-8	3-5
Kam Sanders G	33	7	4	6	2-9	1-5
Eli Robinson F	24	5	3	3	2-4	1-1
Wesley Celichowski C	9	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Caleb Walker F	32	17	12	1	6-6	0-0
Kolby Gilles F	13	4	0	0	1-2	0-0
A.J. Patterson G	7	0	0	2	0-0	0-0
Justin Hinds G	5	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kyle Marshall, Elliott Taite, Josh Gatete, Riley Dering, Keaton Frisch, Brendan Martin, Chris Catchings, Sam Imade

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AF -2.5	AF -0.9	ALST +1.6	W ALST covered
Total	138.5	142.0	Over 3.5	L Under
Projected score	—	ALST 70.6 · AF 71.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AF -0.4	ALST -7.0
1H total	66.5	71
1H projected score	ALST 33.1 · AF 33.4	ALST 39 · AF 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALST LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2
AF LLWL	1-3	25%	1-2	—

Venue/role: ALST away, as underdog; AF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALST UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
AF UUOU	1-3	25%	0-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALSTlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
AFlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama St

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@FSU	L 64-101	+24.5	L −12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@UAB	W 77-74	+19.5	W +22.5	164.5	U 151
Nov 17	@COLO	L 66-94	+22.5	L −5.5	156.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−12.5

UAB

W 77-74

+22.5

COLO

L 66-94

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 64-101

−1.5

UAB

W 77-74

−13.5

COLO

L 66-94

+3.5

over 1under 2avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Air Force

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BEL	L 63-79	+15.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsAPSU	L 54-74	+1.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	vsLIU	L 72-76	+5.5	W +1.5	137.5	O 148
Nov 15	vsM-OH	L 61-76	+10.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−0.5

APSU

L 54-74

−18.5

LIU

L 72-76

+1.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−4.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 63-79

−2.5

APSU

L 54-74

−8.5

LIU

L 72-76

+10.5

M-OH

L 61-76

−6.5

over 1under 3avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alabama St @ Air Force

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama St

Air Force

Alabama St

Air Force