Northern Illinois Huskies at Northern Iowa Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 8:00 PM ETMcLeod Center · at Northern Iowa

Final

Closing lineUNI -19.5✓ NIU covered by 6.5

Closing total146.5Under by 19.5

Season records: N Illinois and Northern Iowa
NIU	This season	UNI
1-2	Record	3-0
2-1	ATS	2-1
2-1	O/U	0-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NIU 63–82 UNI · ✓ UNI (95%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NIU	29	28	57
UNI	32	38	70

1st half: NIU 29, UNI 32 (UNI by 3). The model had UNI by 11.3 and a total of 67.9 (actual 61).

Team stats

NIU		UNI
19-47 40%	Field goals	24-44 55%
8-20 40%	3-pointers	6-17 35%
11-16 69%	Free throws	16-24 67%
26 8 off	Rebounds	30 8 off
11	Assists	15
5	Steals	11
2	Blocks	8
15	Turnovers	15
23	Fouls	15
22	Points in paint	36
8	Fast-break points	10

Players

NIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Ducommun G	34	12	1	7	4-11	3-6
Daemar Kelly G	31	10	2	0	2-7	0-1
Makhai Valentine G	31	8	5	0	2-2	2-2
Gustav Winther F	26	8	5	3	4-4	0-0
Hassan Washington F	21	4	2	0	1-4	1-3
Bench
Jao Ituka G	23	7	4	0	3-9	1-4
Ladji Kante F	16	3	0	0	1-4	1-2
Gianni Cobb G	13	3	2	1	1-5	0-2
Jaylen Wharton F	5	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Carlos Coronado, Max Laskey, Isaiah Stewart, JJ Taylor, Taj Walters, Isaiah Washington, Lataevyon Taylor

UNI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Leon Bond III G	36	12	9	3	4-9	2-5
Max Weisbrod G	30	2	2	5	0-1	0-0
Trey Campbell G	29	15	3	2	4-7	3-5
Tristan Smith F	25	18	5	2	6-9	0-0
Will Hornseth F	25	12	1	3	6-9	0-1
Bench
Ben Schwieger F	27	4	2	0	1-2	0-1
Kyle Pock F	11	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
RJ Taylor G	11	7	0	0	3-5	1-3
Ismael Diouf F	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Geon Hutchins G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Chase Courbat, Levi Valdo, Hunter Jacobson, Jalen Wilson, Cade Courbat, Redek Born, Marino Dubravcic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNI -19.5	UNI -18.9	NIU +0.6	W NIU covered
Total	146.5	144.8	Under 1.7	W Under
Projected score	—	NIU 63 · UNI 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNI -11.3	UNI -3.0
1H total	67.9	61
1H projected score	NIU 28.3 · UNI 39.6	NIU 29 · UNI 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1
UNI WLW	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; UNI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
UNI UUU	0-3	0%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIUlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
UNIlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NIU 0–3 UNIUNI leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · UNI has won the last 3 meetings · NIU 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2024-25	NIU 57 @ UNI 101	UNI -18.5	UNI W
Dec 21, 2023-24	UNI 76 @ NIU 63	NIU +3.5	UNI W
Nov 26, 2022-23	NIU 76 @ UNI 83	UNI -12.5	NIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Illinois

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

W L L

2 straight losses1 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

over 2under 1avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northern Iowa

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −18.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsCSUN	W 86-57	-9.5	W +19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	vsSDST	W 65-58	-10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 14	vsFUR	W 70-54	-9.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

+19.5

SDST

W 65-58

−3.5

FUR

W 70-54

+6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUN

W 86-57

−10.5

SDST

W 65-58

−27.5

FUR

W 70-54

−17.5

over 0under 3avg −18.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Illinois @ Northern Iowa

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Illinois

Northern Iowa

N Illinois

Northern Iowa