Intuit Dome · Neutral site
Closing line
USC -15.5✓ USC covered by 4.5
USC -15.5✓ USC covered by 4.5Closing total155.5Under by 1.5
 ILST | This season | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | ATS | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | O/U | 1-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILST 71–85 USC · ✓ USC (89%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILST | 26 | 41 | 67 |
| USC | 40 | 47 | 87 |
1st half: ILST 26, USC 40 (USC by 14). The model had USC by 8.2 and a total of 72.9 (actual 66).
Team stats
| ILST | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-70 34% | Field goals | 29-57 51% |
| 7-32 22% | 3-pointers | 6-18 33% |
| 12-13 92% | Free throws | 23-35 66% |
| 39 17 off | Rebounds | 36 10 off |
| 11 | Assists | 20 |
| 2 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 7 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 24 | Fouls | 17 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| ILST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger G | 31 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 6-14 | 2-9 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman G | 31 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 6-13 | 1-4 |
| Ty Pence G | 29 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-3 |
| Chase Walker F | 20 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2-10 | 0-1 |
| Boden Skunberg G | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Landon Wolf G | 25 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Brandon Lieb F | 17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Mason Klabo G | 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Landon Moore G | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Jack Daugherty F | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Cameron Barnes F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ty Blake, Isaac Ericksen, Nick Allen
| USC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Rice G | 36 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 6-16 | 2-5 |
| Chad Baker-Mazara G | 33 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 7-13 | 2-4 |
| Jacob Cofie F | 32 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Ezra Ausar F | 15 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Terrance Williams II F | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gabe Dynes C | 32 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Amarion Dickerson F | 28 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Jerry Easter II G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jordan Marsh G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaden Brownell F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jonah Goorin, Alijah Arenas, Brit Burden, Patrick O'Brien, EJ Neal Jr., Ryan Cornish
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSC -15.5
ModelUSC -13.8
Model edgeILST +1.7
L USC covered
Total
Market155.5
Model155.7
Model edgeOver 0.2
L Under
Projected score
ILST 70.9 · USC 84.8
ILST 67 · USC 87
Win probability
USC 89%
1st half
Spread
USC -8.2
USC -14.0
Total
72.9
66 points
Projected score
ILST 32.4 · USC 40.6
ILST 26 · USC 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSC -18.5
3 → ILST
CloseUSC -15.5
3 pts toward ILST
Total
Open155.5
no move
Close155.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
ILST +1100 · USC -2500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USC -18.5 · closed USC -15.5 · moved 3 toward ILSTmodel USC -14
model USC -14
Opened 155.5 · unchangedmodel 155.5 matches the line
model 155.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILSTlast 2 | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% | 0-2 0% |
| USClast 2 | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois St
2 games played
Straight up
1-1
50% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-2
0% overs · avg −22.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@
OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−2.5
9
vs
COR
CORW 76-65
+4.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−21.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
−23.5
over 0under 2avg −22.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
USC
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-0
100% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg +18 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CP
CPW 94-64
+5.5
9
vs
MAN
MANW 114-83
+2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCP
CPW 94-64
−5.5
9
vsMAN
MANW 114-83
+41.5
over 1under 1avg +18 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois St
1-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Cornell76–65
- L@ Ohio68–72
5 days since their last game.
USC
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Manhattan114–83
- Wvs Cal Poly94–64
5 days since their last game.