Saint Joseph's Hawks at Pennsylvania Quakers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETThe Palestra · at Penn

Final

#137PENNPenn83▲ winner

Closing lineJOES -5.5✓ PENN covered by 14.5

Closing total163.5Under by 6.5

Season records: Saint Joseph's and Penn
JOES	This season	PENN
2-1	Record	0-2
1-2	ATS	0-2
2-1	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JOES 80–75 PENN · ✗ JOES (70%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JOES	41	33	74
PENN	41	42	83

1st half: JOES 41, PENN 41 (tied). The model had JOES by 3.7 and a total of 72.5 (actual 82).

Team stats

JOES		PENN
27-71 38%	Field goals	28-62 45%
10-35 29%	3-pointers	8-18 44%
10-15 67%	Free throws	19-23 83%
40 16 off	Rebounds	41 12 off
19	Assists	10
6	Steals	9
5	Blocks	5
13	Turnovers	14
19	Fouls	17
32	Points in paint	38
12	Fast-break points	5

Players

JOES	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Derek Simpson G	36	16	4	1	6-12	3-7
Dasear Haskins F	32	4	7	3	2-10	0-4
Jaiden Glover-Toscano G	29	12	8	0	4-14	1-6
Anthony Finkley F	28	10	3	5	4-10	2-5
Deuce Jones G	27	24	1	4	8-14	3-8
Bench
Justice Ajogbor C	17	1	3	1	0-1	0-0
Austin Williford G	15	5	7	5	2-6	1-3
Khaafiq Myers G	14	2	3	0	1-4	0-2
Jaden Smith C	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Owen Verna, Al Amadou, Mekai Johnson, Billy Rayer, Kevin Kearney, Steven Solano, Will Lange

PENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Power F	37	23	15	0	7-15	4-8
Ethan Roberts G	33	31	5	2	8-15	3-5
AJ Levine G	24	6	0	2	3-4	0-1
Augustus Gerhart F	23	2	5	1	1-5	0-0
Michael Zanoni G	23	0	4	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Cam Thrower G	27	9	3	2	4-7	1-1
Dalton Scantlebury F	17	8	3	0	3-7	0-0
Dylan Williams G	9	4	0	1	2-4	0-1
Lucas Lueth F	7	0	1	1	0-3	0-1

Did not play: William Kruse, Payton Kamin, Ryan Altman, Jay Jones, Michelangelo Oberti, Bradyn Foster, Alex Massung, Niklas Polonowski, Chris Ubochi, Johnnie Walter

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	JOES -5.5	JOES -5.9	JOES +0.4	L PENN covered
Total	163.5	154.8	Under 8.7	W Under
Projected score	—	JOES 80.4 · PENN 74.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JOES -3.7	PK
1H total	72.5	82
1H projected score	JOES 38.1 · PENN 34.4	JOES 41 · PENN 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JOES LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
PENN LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: JOES away, as favorite; PENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JOES OOU	2-1	67%	2-1
PENN OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JOESlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
PENNlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

JOES 4–0 PENNJOES leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · JOES has won the last 4 meetings · JOES 4-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2024-25	JOES 86 @ PENN 69	PENN +7.5	JOES W
Nov 10, 2023-24	PENN 61 @ JOES 69	JOES -6.5	JOES W
Nov 30, 2022-23	JOES 85 @ PENN 80	PENN -5.5	JOES W
Dec 8, 2021-22	PENN 71 @ JOES 78	JOES -4.5	JOES W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Joseph's

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLAF	W 85-76	-13.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	vsDREX	W 76-65	-9.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 12	@VT	L 59-94	+12.5	L −22.5	158.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAF

W 85-76

−4.5

DREX

W 76-65

+1.5

L 59-94

−22.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAF

W 85-76

+22.5

DREX

W 76-65

+1.5

L 59-94

−5.5

over 2under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +11 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@AMER	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 11	@PROV	L 81-106	+19.5	L −5.5	172.5	O 187

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

−7.5

PROV

L 81-106

−5.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

+7.5

PROV

L 81-106

+14.5

over 2under 0avg +11 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Joseph's @ Penn

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Joseph's

Penn

Saint Joseph's

Penn