University Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's
Closing line
SMC -20.5✓ ARST covered by 7.5
SMC -20.5✓ ARST covered by 7.5Closing total149.5Over by 7.5
 ARST | This season | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | Record | 4-0 |
| 2-1 | ATS | 4-0 |
| 2-1 | O/U | 4-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ARST 68–85 SMC · ✓ SMC (93%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 39 | 33 | 72 |
| SMC | 47 | 38 | 85 |
1st half: ARST 39, SMC 47 (SMC by 8). The model had SMC by 10.1 and a total of 71.3 (actual 86).
Team stats
| ARST | SMC | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-69 38% | Field goals | 26-53 49% |
| 9-29 31% | 3-pointers | 8-16 50% |
| 11-13 85% | Free throws | 25-33 76% |
| 35 16 off | Rebounds | 40 13 off |
| 16 | Assists | 17 |
| 8 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 7 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 25 | Fouls | 16 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| ARST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Jackson G | 30 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2-10 | 0-2 |
| Christian Harmon G | 30 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 8-17 | 4-9 |
| T.J. Caldwell G | 24 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth F | 22 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Aly Tounkara F | 14 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chudi Dioramma F | 24 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Matt Hayman G | 22 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5-13 | 2-8 |
| Royal Blue Smith G | 18 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| Jalen Hampton G | 16 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Joey Chammaa, Grayson Bennett, CJ Geathers, Weston Honeycutt, Tim Matthews, Fredy-Salam Sylla
| SMC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dent G | 38 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Paulius Murauskas F | 35 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 8-15 | 0-2 |
| Mikey Lewis G | 34 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6-14 | 3-5 |
| Andrew McKeever C | 32 | 16 | 17 | 2 | 4-9 | 0-0 |
| Kevin Gad F | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Liam Campbell G | 33 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 5-7 | 3-4 |
| Harry Wessels C | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dillan Shaw G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Rory Hawke G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Oliver Faubert, Tony Duckett, Cade Bennett, Jazz Gardner, Mantas Juzenas, Trent MacLean
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSMC -18.5
2 → SMC
CloseSMC -20.5
2 pts toward SMC
Total
Open147.5
▲ 2
Close149.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
ARST +2000 · SMC -7500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SMC -18.5 · closed SMC -20.5 · moved 2 toward SMCmodel SMC -17
model SMC -17
Opened 147.5 · closed 149.5 · moved 2 upmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | SMC -20.5 | SMC -17.1 | ARST +3.4 | W ARST covered |
| Total | 149.5 | 152.1 | Over 2.6 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | ARST 67.5 · SMC 84.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | SMC -10.1 | SMC -8.0 |
| 1H total | 71.3 | 86 |
| 1H projected score | ARST 30.6 · SMC 40.7 | ARST 39 · SMC 47 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARSTlast 3 | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% | 2-1 67% |
| SMClast 4 | 4-0 100% | 4-0 100% | 4-0 100% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Arkansas St
3 games played
Straight up
2-1
67% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +10.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+7.5
7
@
SFA
SFAL 65-90
−26.5
11
@
MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+14.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−0.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+18.5
over 2under 1avg +10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Saint Mary's
4 games played
Straight up
4-0
100% wins
Against the spread
4-0
100% covers · avg +11.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-0
100% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
STMN
STMNW 84-58
+12.5
7
vs
UTC
UTCW 87-66
+5.5
11
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-60
+12.5
14
vs
UNT
UNTW 80-49
+16.5
covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +11.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 84-58
+0.5
7
vsUTC
UTCW 87-66
+7.5
11
vsOHIO
OHIOW 90-60
+5.5
14
vsUNT
UNTW 80-49
+0.5
over 4under 0avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Arkansas St
2-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Missouri St86–85
- L@ SF Austin65–90
- W@ Ohio89–85
A week or more of rest.
Saint Mary's
4-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Texas80–49
- Wvs Ohio90–60
- Wvs Chattanooga87–66
- Wvs St Thomas84–58
5 days since their last game.