South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Oregon Ducks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 12, 9:30 PM ETMatthew Knight Arena · at Oregon

Final

#57OREOregon83▲ winner

Closing lineORE -16.5✓ SDST covered by 2.5

Closing total145.5Over by 6.5

Season records: S Dakota St and Oregon
SDST	This season	ORE
1-1	Record	2-0
2-0	ATS	0-2
0-2	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SDST 65–81 ORE · ✓ ORE (91%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SDST	34	35	69
ORE	40	43	83

1st half: SDST 34, ORE 40 (ORE by 6). The model had ORE by 9.2 and a total of 68.4 (actual 74).

Team stats

SDST		ORE
26-59 44%	Field goals	28-62 45%
8-25 32%	3-pointers	15-40 38%
9-14 64%	Free throws	12-16 75%
33 7 off	Rebounds	37 8 off
8	Assists	16
6	Steals	7
0	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	10
19	Fouls	14
26	Points in paint	18
6	Fast-break points	8

Players

SDST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joe Sayler G	33	14	3	1	7-12	0-4
Jaden Jackson G	29	8	6	2	3-6	2-4
Matthew Mors F	27	7	5	0	2-8	1-6
Kalen Garry G	24	13	2	0	5-10	3-6
Alec Squires C	12	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Luke Haertle G	25	14	6	1	5-10	1-2
Caleb Delzell F	22	5	6	1	2-6	1-3
Damon Wilkinson F	19	8	1	1	2-7	0-0
Trey Buchanan G	9	0	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Bubz Alvarez, Andrell Burton Jr., Jadyn Cascio Jensen, Jaden Rogers, Davis Kern

ORE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Shelstad G	37	22	3	8	8-19	4-13
Nate Bittle C	31	14	10	3	5-9	1-2
Takai Simpkins G	27	20	2	0	6-11	5-10
Dez Lindsay F	27	8	2	2	3-4	2-3
Kwame Evans Jr. F	23	5	6	1	1-5	1-3
Bench
Sean Stewart F	19	6	5	0	2-4	0-0
Oleksandr Kobzystyi F	12	3	1	1	1-3	1-3
Drew Carter G	9	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Wei Lin G	8	2	2	0	1-5	0-4
Ege Demir C	7	0	4	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Devon Pryor, Miles Stewart, Luke Johnson, Efe Vatan, JJ Frakes, Rian Gonzales, Jamari Phillips

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ORE -16.5	ORE -15.4	SDST +1.1	W SDST covered
Total	145.5	146.0	Over 0.5	W Over
Projected score	—	SDST 65.3 · ORE 80.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORE -9.2	ORE -6.0
1H total	68.4	74
1H projected score	SDST 29.6 · ORE 38.8	SDST 34 · ORE 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDST WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
ORE LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: SDST away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDST UU	0-2	0%	1-1
ORE UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSTlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	0-2 0%
ORElast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

S Dakota St

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −15 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRMK	W 75-66	-6.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 9	@UNI	L 58-65	+10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

+2.5

UNI

L 58-65

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

−2.5

UNI

L 58-65

−27.5

over 0under 2avg −15 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −11 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −20.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −11 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

over 0under 2avg −20.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

S Dakota St @ Oregon

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

S Dakota St

Oregon

S Dakota St

Oregon