Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners at Portland State Vikings: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 17, 10:00 PM ETViking Pavilion · at Portland St

Final

#274PRSTPortland St93▲ winner

Closing linePRST -8.5✓ PRST covered by 4.5

Closing total141.5Over by 31.5

Season records: Bakersfield and Portland St
CSUB	This season	PRST
1-2	Record	0-2
2-1	ATS	2-0
1-2	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CSUB 70–76 PRST · ✓ PRST (70%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CSUB	32	48	80
PRST	42	51	93

1st half: CSUB 32, PRST 42 (PRST by 10). The model had PRST by 3.5 and a total of 68.8 (actual 74).

Team stats

CSUB		PRST
25-55 45%	Field goals	33-55 60%
7-17 41%	3-pointers	10-18 56%
23-29 79%	Free throws	17-26 65%
27 10 off	Rebounds	33 10 off
15	Assists	15
11	Steals	8
5	Blocks	4
17	Turnovers	15
22	Fouls	22
22	Points in paint	42
11	Fast-break points	11

Players

CSUB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dailin Smith G	35	30	2	0	9-17	4-8
CJ Hardy G	31	21	3	7	5-9	1-3
Tom Mark F	30	5	7	4	2-4	0-2
AJ George G	29	10	3	2	4-9	1-3
Pierre Geneste Jr. C	13	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Ronald Jessamy F	27	7	1	0	3-6	1-1
Kadar Waller G	13	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Jaden Alexander G	11	3	1	1	0-2	0-0
Mike Price G	9	2	2	0	1-5	0-0
Caleb McCarty F	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Bentley Waller, Colin Darby, Dylan Purnell, TJ James Jr.

PRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tre-Vaughn Minott C	34	16	4	1	7-10	0-0
Jaylin Henderson G	31	28	2	5	10-17	1-3
Terri Miller Jr. F	27	20	5	5	7-9	3-4
Keyon Kensie Jr. G	27	9	8	1	4-6	1-1
Alex Dupre G	16	6	2	0	2-4	2-2
Bench
Kelcy Phipps G	25	6	2	0	1-2	1-2
Sebastian Tidor G	23	8	4	2	2-7	2-6
Mozae Downing-Rivers G	8	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Charles Chukwu F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Brycen Long G	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kean Webb, Samuel Stewart IV, Isaac Brice, Colt Ness, Isaiah Williams, Brayden Barron, Matt Beatty

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PRST -8.5	PRST -6.0	CSUB +2.5	L PRST covered
Total	141.5	146.8	Over 5.3	W Over
Projected score	—	CSUB 70.4 · PRST 76.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRST -3.5	PRST -10.0
1H total	68.8	74
1H projected score	CSUB 32.7 · PRST 36.1	CSUB 32 · PRST 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUB LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1
PRST WW	2-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: CSUB away, as underdog; PRST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUB UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
PRST OU	1-1	50%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUBlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
PRSTlast 2	0-2 0%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CSUB 0–1 PRSTPRST leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CSUB 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	PRST 59 @ CSUB 58	CSUB -4.5	PRST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bakersfield

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CAL	L 60-87	+15.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsWIU	W 74-58	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@MISS	L 60-82	+23.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−11.5

WIU

W 74-58

+8.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−0.5

WIU

W 74-58

−9.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

over 1under 2avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Portland St

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@STAN	L 79-89	+11.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 12	@SF	L 70-80	+13.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STAN

L 79-89

+1.5

L 70-80

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STAN

L 79-89

+23.5

L 70-80

−4.5

over 1under 1avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bakersfield @ Portland St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Bakersfield

Portland St

Bakersfield

Portland St