Western Illinois Leathernecks at California Baptist Lancers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 10:30 PM ETDale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center · at CA Baptist

Final

#203CBUCA Baptist69▲ winner

Closing lineCBU -15.5✓ WIU covered by 5.5

Closing total140.5Under by 12.5

Season records: W Illinois and CA Baptist
WIU	This season	CBU
0-3	Record	2-0
2-1	ATS	1-1
1-2	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WIU 62–79 CBU · ✓ CBU (92%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WIU	28	31	59
CBU	32	37	69

1st half: WIU 28, CBU 32 (CBU by 4). The model had CBU by 9.8 and a total of 66.2 (actual 60).

Team stats

WIU		CBU
21-50 42%	Field goals	23-67 34%
2-10 20%	3-pointers	7-30 23%
15-21 71%	Free throws	16-20 80%
29 4 off	Rebounds	50 21 off
2	Assists	6
4	Steals	4
0	Blocks	0
8	Turnovers	6
18	Fouls	14
34	Points in paint	32
11	Fast-break points	10

Players

WIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lucas Lorenzen G	36	9	6	1	2-10	1-5
Antwaun Massey F	36	29	5	0	13-18	0-0
Isaiah Griffin F	36	10	1	1	2-6	0-1
Francis Okwuosah F	28	2	7	0	1-6	0-2
Makai Kvamme G	20	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Marcus Pigram G	15	3	1	0	1-3	1-2
Karyiek Dixon F	13	2	2	0	0-2	0-0
Tyran Cook G	12	2	1	0	1-3	0-0
Goanar Biliew F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Ifiok Peter, Jack Riley, Nick Hittle, Jake Edwards, Steven Tipton, Danny Stephens

CBU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jayden Jackson G	37	8	3	2	2-12	2-9
Martel Williams G	36	13	11	1	5-17	1-7
Dominique Daniels Jr. G	36	22	4	2	6-16	2-6
Devon Malcolm G	21	11	4	1	5-6	1-2
Thomas Ndong F	21	3	14	0	1-5	0-0
Bench
Bradey Henige F	20	5	8	0	2-3	0-0
Jordan Muller G	19	7	0	0	2-5	1-3
Monty Bowser G	6	0	1	0	0-3	0-3
Nate Garcia C	4	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Mouhamadou Dioum, Jalen Dollar, Jonathan Griman, Chase Mayo Harmon, Miles Daniels, Rene D'Amelio, OJ Blankson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CBU -15.5	CBU -16.4	CBU +0.9	L WIU covered
Total	140.5	141.3	Over 0.8	L Under
Projected score	—	WIU 62.4 · CBU 78.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CBU -9.8	CBU -4.0
1H total	66.2	60
1H projected score	WIU 28.2 · CBU 38	WIU 28 · CBU 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIU WWL	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1
CBU LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: WIU away, as underdog; CBU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIU OUU	1-2	33%	0-3
CBU OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIUlast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
CBUlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Illinois

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@RAD	L 75-80	+16.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 7	@IOWA	L 58-77	+30.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 11	@CSUB	L 58-74	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+11.5

IOWA

L 58-77

+11.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+3.5

IOWA

L 58-77

−10.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−9.5

over 1under 2avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

CA Baptist

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUPST	W 87-75	-14.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 162
Nov 7	@UCI	W 69-61	+8.5	W +16.5	147.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

−2.5

UCI

W 69-61

+16.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

W 87-75

+9.5

UCI

W 69-61

−17.5

over 1under 1avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

W Illinois @ CA Baptist

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

W Illinois

CA Baptist

W Illinois

CA Baptist