Stonehill Skyhawks at Fairfield Stags: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ETLeo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield

#349STOStonehill71final

Final

#239FAIRFairfield73▲ winner

Closing lineFAIR -6.5✓ STO covered by 4.5

Closing total143.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Stonehill and Fairfield
STO	This season	FAIR
0-2	Record	1-2
1-1	ATS	2-1
0-2	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STO 66–75 FAIR · ✓ FAIR (78%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
STO	27	38	6	71
FAIR	30	35	8	73

1st half: STO 27, FAIR 30 (FAIR by 3). The model had FAIR by 5.1 and a total of 66.0 (actual 57).

Team stats

STO		FAIR
27-68 40%	Field goals	23-67 34%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	9-28 32%
8-11 73%	Free throws	18-24 75%
44 5 off	Rebounds	43 8 off
15	Assists	9
2	Steals	7
6	Blocks	9
10	Turnovers	6
15	Fouls	13
36	Points in paint	20
13	Fast-break points	10

Players

STO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Hermann Koffi G	43	14	3	2	5-12	4-8
Raymond Espinal-Guzman F	40	19	12	4	7-14	3-6
Rex Sunderland G	39	7	6	6	2-10	1-2
Chas Stinson G	32	13	8	0	6-11	0-1
Ridvan Tutic F	17	5	6	1	2-5	0-0
Bench
Davante Hackett G	29	11	2	1	4-9	1-4
Trenton Ruth G	7	0	2	0	0-3	0-1
Pearse McGuinn F	7	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Cory Lovell F	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Anthony Holden G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Eino Montin, Charlie Diamantis, Ethan Meuser, Norbu Jenpa, Colin Byrne, Will Batchelder

FAIR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Declan Wucherpfennig G	35	11	9	1	3-9	1-4
Braden Sparks G	35	16	4	3	4-15	2-7
Deuce Turner G	33	22	4	2	7-14	4-6
Brandon Benjamin F	33	4	9	0	2-5	0-0
Cam Estevez G	18	0	1	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Eric Mejia G	18	5	1	0	1-4	0-1
Halon Rawlins G	13	5	0	0	2-5	1-3
Isaac Munkadi F	13	5	8	1	2-4	0-2
Michael Rogan G	10	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Tony Williams G	9	0	3	1	0-4	0-1
Nasir Rodriguez G	8	2	1	0	1-3	0-1

Did not play: Tanner Ostop, Aidan May, Peyton Smith, Joe Ganton, Luke Davidson, Matt Curtis, Ryan Zan, Noah Best

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FAIR -6.5	FAIR -8.7	FAIR +2.2	L STO covered
Total	143.5	140.8	Under 2.7	L Over
Projected score	—	STO 66 · FAIR 74.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FAIR -5.1	FAIR -3.0
1H total	66.0	57
1H projected score	STO 30.4 · FAIR 35.5	STO 27 · FAIR 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STO WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1
FAIR WWL	2-1	67%	—	1-0

Venue/role: STO away, as underdog; FAIR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STO UU	0-2	0%	0-2
FAIR UUO	1-2	33%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STOlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
FAIRlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stonehill

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −13 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@DEP	L 64-72	+22.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	@URI	L 57-80	+16.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 64-72

+14.5

URI

L 57-80

−6.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 64-72

−11.5

URI

L 57-80

−14.5

over 0under 2avg −13 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fairfield

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U U O

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PSU	L 68-76	+15.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NJIT	W 74-53	-6.5	W +14.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 10	@HALL	L 59-82	+14.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

+7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

+14.5

HALL

L 59-82

−8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PSU

L 68-76

−7.5

NJIT

W 74-53

−18.5

HALL

L 59-82

+3.5

over 1under 2avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stonehill @ Fairfield

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Stonehill

Fairfield

Stonehill

Fairfield