Milwaukee Panthers at Indiana Hoosiers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ETSimon Skjodt Assembly Hall · at Indiana

#235MILWMilwaukee70final

Final

#38IUIndiana101▲ winner

Closing lineIU -24.5✓ IU covered by 6.5

Closing total165.5Over by 5.5

Season records: Milwaukee and Indiana
MILW	This season	IU
2-1	Record	2-0
1-2	ATS	2-0
3-0	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MILW 71–94 IU · ✓ IU (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MILW	39	31	70
IU	51	50	101

1st half: MILW 39, IU 51 (IU by 12). The model had IU by 13.8 and a total of 77.2 (actual 90).

Team stats

MILW		IU
29-62 47%	Field goals	34-60 57%
5-17 29%	3-pointers	14-28 50%
7-18 39%	Free throws	19-27 70%
31 13 off	Rebounds	35 11 off
7	Assists	23
2	Steals	8
3	Blocks	3
15	Turnovers	7
21	Fouls	19
36	Points in paint	38
6	Fast-break points	14

Players

MILW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Danilo Jovanovich F	33	18	6	1	8-11	0-0
Seth Hubbard G	33	17	5	0	8-18	0-4
Amar Augillard G	26	14	5	3	5-12	3-6
Esyah Pippa-White G	24	5	1	3	2-5	1-3
Faizon Fields F	22	4	5	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Josh Dixon G	16	8	0	0	3-6	1-2
Stevie Elam G	14	0	1	0	0-4	0-2
Tate Mackenzie F	10	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Aaron Franklin G	9	2	2	0	1-4	0-0
Isaiah Dorceus G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Sekou Konneh F	5	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Simeon Murchison F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Chandler Jackson F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Austin Villarreal, John Lovelace Jr., Ned Renfree

IU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tayton Conerway G	34	21	2	6	8-11	1-4
Tucker DeVries F	33	12	5	2	4-10	2-5
Lamar Wilkerson G	31	24	1	2	7-12	5-6
Conor Enright G	26	5	5	3	2-5	1-4
Reed Bailey F	26	14	5	5	4-6	1-1
Bench
Trent Sisley F	14	6	0	1	2-3	2-2
Jasai Miles G	12	6	5	2	2-4	1-3
Sam Alexis F	11	3	4	1	1-2	0-0
Nick Dorn G	7	8	3	1	3-6	1-3
Ian Stephens G	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Drew Snively G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tryce Grensing G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Andrej Acimovic, Aleksa Ristic, Deuce Drake, Josh Harris, Jordan Rayford

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	IU -24.5	IU -23.1	MILW +1.4	L IU covered
Total	165.5	164.9	Under 0.6	L Over
Projected score	—	MILW 70.9 · IU 94

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IU -13.8	IU -12.0
1H total	77.2	90
1H projected score	MILW 31.7 · IU 45.5	MILW 39 · IU 51

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MILW LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	—
IU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: MILW away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MILW OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
IU OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILWlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%
IUlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Milwaukee

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +16.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

over 3under 0avg +16.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +18 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +11 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsAAMU	W 98-51	-30.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 9	vsMARQ	W 100-77	-3.5	W +19.5	156.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+16.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+19.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +18 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+1.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+20.5

over 2under 0avg +11 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Milwaukee @ Indiana

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Milwaukee

Indiana

Milwaukee

Indiana