Tarleton State Texans at Baylor Bears: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 9:00 PM ETFoster Pavilion · at Baylor

Final

#29BAYBaylor94▲ winner

Closing lineBAY -23.5✓ TAR covered by 10.5

Closing total149.5Over by 25.5

Season records: Tarleton St and Baylor
TAR	This season	BAY
2-2	Record	2-0
3-1	ATS	1-1
3-1	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TAR 65–89 BAY · ✓ BAY (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TAR	42	39	81
BAY	55	39	94

1st half: TAR 42, BAY 55 (BAY by 13). The model had BAY by 14.5 and a total of 72.1 (actual 97).

Team stats

TAR		BAY
33-64 52%	Field goals	33-57 58%
3-12 25%	3-pointers	11-27 41%
12-14 86%	Free throws	17-20 85%
34 18 off	Rebounds	21 9 off
11	Assists	21
8	Steals	10
3	Blocks	8
21	Turnovers	15
18	Fouls	17
40	Points in paint	42
11	Fast-break points	13

Players

TAR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kaia Isaac G	36	5	2	1	2-6	1-3
Freddy Hicks G	34	13	3	2	4-8	0-1
Chris Mpaka F	27	4	10	0	2-6	0-0
Jordan Mizell G	21	3	4	5	1-5	0-0
Leroy Kelly IV G	16	4	2	1	2-4	0-2
Bench
Dior Johnson G	31	42	0	1	17-24	2-3
Cam McDowell G	13	2	3	0	1-3	0-1
Ocypher Owens F	12	6	1	1	3-5	0-2
Andy Sigiscar F	7	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Kade Douglas G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Roy Marom G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jaden Jinks, Damion Porter Jr., Daniel Dormu, Cameron Thomas, AJ Dent, Matyas Vrabel, Malek Archie, Joseph Martinez

BAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Michael Rataj G	36	6	4	4	2-5	0-2
Cameron Carr G	35	27	2	0	10-13	3-6
Dan Skillings Jr. G	33	13	7	5	5-10	2-4
Obi Agbim G	32	14	1	5	5-8	3-6
Tounde Yessoufou G	22	12	3	2	3-9	0-4
Bench
Isaac Williams IV G	25	16	1	5	6-8	1-1
JJ White G	9	6	2	0	2-4	2-4
Caden Powell C	8	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Drew Perry, James Goodis, Maikcol Perez, Mayo Soyoye, Andre Iguodala II, Will Kuykendall, Juslin Bodo Bodo

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BAY -23.5	BAY -24.2	BAY +0.7	L TAR covered
Total	149.5	153.9	Over 4.4	W Over
Projected score	—	TAR 64.9 · BAY 89

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BAY -14.5	BAY -13.0
1H total	72.1	97
1H projected score	TAR 28.8 · BAY 43.3	TAR 42 · BAY 55

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TAR WLWW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-1
BAY LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: TAR away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TAR OOOU	3-1	75%	2-2
BAY OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TARlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%
BAYlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TAR 0–2 BAYBAY leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · BAY has won the last 2 meetings · TAR 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 17, 2024-25	TAR 41 @ BAY 104	BAY -31.5	BAY W
Dec 6, 2022-23	TAR 57 @ BAY 80	BAY -15.5	BAY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tarleton St

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +12.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMU	L 76-96	+21.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 172
Nov 5	@LSU	L 60-96	+15.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 8	vsAMCC	W 85-77	-3.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsMRMK	W 76-62	-4.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMU

L 76-96

+1.5

LSU

L 60-96

−20.5

AMCC

W 85-77

+4.5

MRMK

W 76-62

+9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMU

L 76-96

+27.5

LSU

L 60-96

+7.5

AMCC

W 85-77

+19.5

MRMK

W 76-62

−4.5

over 3under 1avg +12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Baylor

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRGV	W 96-81	-24.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 9	vsWASH	W 78-69	-6.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

−9.5

WASH

W 78-69

+2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

+22.5

WASH

W 78-69

−9.5

over 1under 1avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tarleton St @ Baylor

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Tarleton St

Baylor

Tarleton St

Baylor