Sacred Heart Pioneers at Central Connecticut Blue Devils: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 7:00 PM ETDetrick Gymnasium · at C Connecticut

Final

#337CCSUC Connecticut108▲ winner

Closing lineCCSU -3.5✓ SHU covered by 1.5

Closing total143.5Over by 70.5

Season records: Sacred Heart and C Connecticut
SHU	This season	CCSU
1-3	Record	2-2
2-2	ATS	3-1
1-3	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SHU 68–72 CCSU · ✓ CCSU (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
SHU	51	42	13	106
CCSU	54	39	15	108

1st half: SHU 51, CCSU 54 (CCSU by 3). The model had CCSU by 2.6 and a total of 65.6 (actual 105).

Team stats

SHU		CCSU
34-67 51%	Field goals	38-62 61%
13-30 43%	3-pointers	7-16 44%
25-26 96%	Free throws	25-33 76%
30 9 off	Rebounds	32 8 off
15	Assists	22
6	Steals	7
1	Blocks	7
12	Turnovers	11
22	Fouls	15
38	Points in paint	54
11	Fast-break points	11

Players

SHU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dashon Gittens G	40	22	3	3	7-9	3-4
Anquan Hill F	37	34	5	2	11-23	2-4
Yann Farell F	34	20	4	0	7-13	4-9
Jaden Slaughter G	26	4	3	1	2-3	0-1
Fallou Gueye G	22	11	1	1	3-5	1-2
Bench
Mekhi Conner G	29	3	3	6	1-7	1-6
Taj Bryant G	16	2	2	2	0-1	0-0
Nyle Ralph-Beyer G	14	8	2	0	2-4	2-3
Abdou Yadd F	7	2	1	0	1-2	0-1

Did not play: Lucius Gibson-Savadel, Malik Sheppard, Alex Woodring, Mooda Gittens, Jeremiah Jacobs, Kevin Pikiell, Griffin Barrouk

CCSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Darin Smith Jr. G	37	38	5	4	12-21	3-7
James Jones G	36	4	11	1	2-4	0-1
Melo Sanchez G	35	17	2	3	4-7	3-6
Jay Rodgers G	31	7	2	10	3-7	1-2
Max Frazier F	26	24	5	1	9-11	0-0
Bench
Daniel James F	19	8	2	1	3-4	0-0
Gabe Spinelli G	16	4	1	0	2-3	0-0
Ja'Kobe Williams G	15	4	2	2	2-2	0-0
Nico Ashley F	10	2	0	0	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Roddy Jones, Adam Fox, Jayden Mott, Corsley Edwards Jr., Elijah Parker, Ashton Reynolds, Rashawn Tibby

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CCSU -3.5	CCSU -4.6	CCSU +1.1	L SHU covered
Total	143.5	139.9	Under 3.6	L Over
Projected score	—	SHU 67.6 · CCSU 72.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CCSU -2.6	CCSU -3.0
1H total	65.6	105
1H projected score	SHU 31.5 · CCSU 34.1	SHU 51 · CCSU 54

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHU WLLW	2-2	50%	1-2	1-2
CCSU LWWW	3-1	75%	—	—

Venue/role: SHU away, as underdog; CCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHU OUUU	1-3	25%	1-3
CCSU UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHUlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
CCSUlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

SHU 4–3 CCSUSHU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · SHU 3-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 21, 2024-25	CCSU 54 @ SHU 67	SHU +2.5	SHU W
Feb 24, 2023-24	CCSU 68 @ SHU 67	SHU -1.5	CCSU W
Feb 8, 2023-24	SHU 70 @ CCSU 77	CCSU -4.5	CCSU W
Feb 25, 2022-23	SHU 69 @ CCSU 67	CCSU -1.5	SHU W
Feb 4, 2022-23	CCSU 65 @ SHU 78	SHU -3.5	SHU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sacred Heart

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@DUQ	L 80-92	+12.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 11	@VILL	L 60-94	+19.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 154
Nov 15	@QUC	L 64-81	+5.5	L −11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsHC	W 79-66	-7.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 80-92

+0.5

VILL

L 60-94

−14.5

QUC

L 64-81

−11.5

W 79-66

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 80-92

+14.5

VILL

L 60-94

−6.5

QUC

L 64-81

−20.5

W 79-66

−7.5

over 1under 3avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin

C Connecticut

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +10 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −12 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@QUIN	L 49-71	+9.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 120
Nov 11	@BC	W 60-59	+17.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 119
Nov 16	@MASS	L 77-84	+12.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 161
Nov 21	@RUTG	W 67-54	+15.5	W +28.5	137.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUIN

L 49-71

−12.5

W 60-59

+18.5

MASS

L 77-84

+5.5

RUTG

W 67-54

+28.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +10 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUIN

L 49-71

−30.5

W 60-59

−17.5

MASS

L 77-84

+16.5

RUTG

W 67-54

−16.5

over 1under 3avg −12 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Sacred Heart @ C Connecticut

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Sacred Heart

C Connecticut

Sacred Heart

C Connecticut