South Carolina State Bulldogs at Charleston Cougars: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ETTD Arena · at Charleston

#353SCSTSC State61final

Final

#117COFCCharleston88▲ winner

Closing lineCOFC -18.5✓ COFC covered by 8.5

Closing total156.5Under by 7.5

Season records: SC State and Charleston
SCST	This season	COFC
0-3	Record	0-2
1-2	ATS	0-2
0-3	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SCST 71–84 COFC · ✓ COFC (86%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SCST	37	24	61
COFC	50	38	88

1st half: SCST 37, COFC 50 (COFC by 13). The model had COFC by 7.5 and a total of 72.5 (actual 87).

Team stats

SCST		COFC
21-60 35%	Field goals	32-61 52%
7-16 44%	3-pointers	3-21 14%
12-27 44%	Free throws	21-31 68%
35 17 off	Rebounds	44 16 off
11	Assists	22
4	Steals	8
3	Blocks	8
12	Turnovers	7
20	Fouls	21
24	Points in paint	56
2	Fast-break points	24

Players

SCST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Obie Bronston Jr. G	24	15	4	0	5-11	5-8
Tim Okojie C	23	3	7	0	1-4	0-0
Jayden Johnson G	18	9	0	6	3-6	0-1
Florian Tenebay G	16	2	2	0	1-8	0-1
D'Shay Knights Wright F	15	1	5	1	0-2	0-0
Bench
Rayniel Wright G	25	5	2	1	2-6	0-0
Noah Treadwell G	24	8	2	1	3-8	2-5
Cameron Clark F	21	13	4	0	4-7	0-0
Teon Tindal F	12	5	2	0	2-4	0-0
Colin McKenzie G	11	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
James Morrow G	8	0	0	2	0-2	0-0
Jamal Miles G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Derwin Hodge Jr., Chris Parker

COFC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaxon Prunty G	25	7	7	1	1-5	0-3
Jlynn Counter G	23	4	6	4	2-6	0-3
Martin Kalu G	22	12	5	3	3-9	0-4
Christian Reeves C	13	7	10	1	2-4	0-0
Kendall Taylor G	11	2	1	1	1-4	0-2
Bench
Chadlyn Traylor G	25	10	3	5	5-5	0-0
Bryce Baker G	19	3	0	0	1-6	0-5
Chol Machot C	18	12	1	0	6-6	0-0
Chris Davis Jr. G	17	12	3	2	4-6	3-4
Mister Dean G	16	11	4	5	3-5	0-0
Will Mortimore F	9	8	3	0	4-5	0-0
AJ Fowler G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Joey Scarpitti G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Connor Hickman, Djordje Curcic, Colby Duggan

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	COFC -18.5	COFC -12.6	SCST +5.9	L COFC covered
Total	156.5	154.9	Under 1.6	W Under
Projected score	—	SCST 71.1 · COFC 83.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	COFC -7.5	COFC -13.0
1H total	72.5	87
1H projected score	SCST 32.5 · COFC 40	SCST 37 · COFC 50

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCST LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2
COFC LL	0-2	0%	—	—

Venue/role: SCST away, as underdog; COFC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCST UUU	0-3	0%	0-3
COFC OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCSTlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%
COFClast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SCST 0–1 COFCCOFC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SCST 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2021-22	SCST 74 @ COFC 106	COFC -18.5	COFC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC State

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −13.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −13.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

over 0under 3avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Charleston

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +17 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@LIB	L 75-90	+9.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsFAU	L 77-94	+5.5	L −11.5	156.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

−5.5

FAU

L 77-94

−11.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIB

L 75-90

+19.5

FAU

L 77-94

+14.5

over 2under 0avg +17 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SC State @ Charleston

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SC State

Charleston

SC State

Charleston