Hampton Pirates at Brown Bears: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 14, 8:15 PM ETPizzitola Sports Center · at Brown

#159HAMPHampton72▲ winner

Final

#156BRWNBrown63final

Closing lineBRWN -1.5✓ HAMP covered by 10.5

Closing total139.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Hampton and Brown
HAMP	This season	BRWN
0-2	Record	0-3
1-1	ATS	1-2
1-1	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HAMP 74–76 BRWN · ✗ BRWN (57%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HAMP	30	42	72
BRWN	27	36	63

1st half: HAMP 30, BRWN 27 (HAMP by 3). The model had BRWN by 1.0 and a total of 70.3 (actual 57).

Team stats

HAMP		BRWN
24-59 41%	Field goals	23-46 50%
2-13 15%	3-pointers	8-19 42%
22-28 79%	Free throws	9-15 60%
38 20 off	Rebounds	27 9 off
10	Assists	15
13	Steals	8
2	Blocks	13
12	Turnovers	19
17	Fouls	20
32	Points in paint	28
11	Fast-break points	8

Players

HAMP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xzavier Long F	33	7	15	0	2-8	0-2
Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt G	28	16	1	6	4-11	1-4
Christian Watson G	24	8	4	0	2-8	0-0
Michael Eley G	24	18	2	0	6-8	1-2
Josh Ogundele F	19	2	4	0	1-4	0-1
Bench
Daniel Johnson F	25	17	3	0	7-12	0-2
Etienne Strothers G	16	2	2	3	1-4	0-1
Kody Williams G	14	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Eunique Rink F	9	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Aidan Haskins G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Peter Oduro F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Quintin Cooper G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Kellan Lewis, Hamza Asadallah, Elijah Kennedy

BRWN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
N'famara Dabo F	37	11	7	3	4-5	0-0
Jeremiah Jenkins G	33	21	1	4	6-10	5-6
Isaiah Langham G	30	13	6	0	6-10	0-2
Brady Loughlin G	29	8	1	0	3-9	2-8
Adrian Uchidiuno G	18	3	1	2	1-3	1-2
Bench
Luke Paragon G	17	0	1	2	0-3	0-1
Malcolm Wrisby-Jefferson G	15	2	2	3	1-3	0-0
Wyatt DeGraaf F	9	5	1	0	2-3	0-0
Charlie O'Sullivan F	7	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Drew Kania F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Landon Lewis, AJ Lesburt Jr., Jerrell Barron Jr., David Rochester, Jonah Drezner

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BRWN -1.5	BRWN -1.9	BRWN +0.4	L HAMP covered
Total	139.5	150.2	Over 10.7	L Under
Projected score	—	HAMP 74.1 · BRWN 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BRWN -1.0	HAMP -3.0
1H total	70.3	57
1H projected score	HAMP 34.7 · BRWN 35.7	HAMP 30 · BRWN 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAMP WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1
BRWN LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	—

Venue/role: HAMP away, as underdog; BRWN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAMP OU	1-1	50%	0-2
BRWN UOO	2-1	67%	0-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAMPlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
BRWNlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hampton

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +12.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MILW	L 86-90	+5.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 11	@UVA	L 53-91	+24.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 86-90

+1.5

UVA

L 53-91

−13.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 86-90

+29.5

UVA

L 53-91

−4.5

over 1under 1avg +12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Brown

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +14.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

U O O

2 straight overs2 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

over 2under 1avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hampton @ Brown

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Hampton

Brown

Hampton

Brown